FXUS63 KARX 071033 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 533 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slowly warming temperatures through the start of the weekend with highs by Saturday returning to around 65 to 70 degrees. - Near/below freezing temperatures again for Friday morning, focused mainly east of the Mississippi River. - The risk for precipitation today and Friday is waning and any impacts from Saturday's rainfall is looking to be low. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1233 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026 Today/Tonight: Warming Trend Begins, Waning Precipitation Chances - Slowly warming temperatures through the start of the weekend with highs by Saturday returning to around 65 to 70 degrees. - Near/below freezing temperatures again for Friday morning, focused mainly east of the Mississippi River. - The risk for precipitation today and Friday is waning and any impacts from Saturday's rainfall is looking to be low. A distinct mid-level vort lobe is present on water vapor imagery over central Minnesota at 05Z and will track to the ESE, exiting into central/eastern WI during the mid to late morning. This is the feature that could produce a few elevated showers, but trends in the CAMs have been for a drier passage which is backed up by upstream satellite trends showing decaying mid-level cloud fields with subsidence on the backside of the wave. Still cannot fully out a sprinkle before 13-15Z, but the signal is so faint and transient that we've gone dry with the forecast. Recent trends in the HRRR/RAP have been focusing any risk for these sprinkles to be south of I-90. There is a second shortwave that works through the cyclonic flow into far northern Wisconsin later in the afternoon, but shower activity with this wave looks to be focused north of the forecast area. Lower tropospheric warm air advection begins throughout the day and should bump highs up to the upper 50s to near 60. Clearing skies in the wake of these waves should set the stage for another round of near/below freezing temperatures, mainly east of the Mississippi River where freeze/frost headlines will likely be needed once again. Friday and Saturday: Warming, Basically Dry Continued warm air advection boosts highs for Friday by another 5 to 7 degrees over today's highs. The medium and short range solutions are also trending southward with the precipitation for Friday, keeping the forecast area essentially dry. This entire southward pattern shift does have some ramifications for Saturday's high temperature forecast as temperatures have cooled 3-5 degrees over the previous forecasts. There is also a drier trend setting in for the cold frontal passage Saturday afternoon and evening. Have maintained some slight chance PoPs for the front passage, but if these trends continue, the forecast may be set to dry. Regardless of the PoP forecast, QPF amounts look to be very light with nearly all members having less than 0.10" of rain. Sunday into Early Next Week: Continued Dry Behind the front, skies clear out as a surface high pressure drops south out of Canada. This will keep conditions dry and temperatures seasonal for the area into early next week. It isn't until Tuesday next week that we see more widespread rain chances return as a ridge builds over the western CONUS, putting our region under more cyclonic flow aloft. This will also coincide with more robust moisture return, allowing for more substantial rain chances. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 533 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026 2 shortwave troughs will move southeast through the region. the first will move through early this morning and a second will move through this afternoon. These systems will bring mid- and high cloudsto the area. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for WIZ017-029- 032>034-041>044-053>055-061. MN...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MNZ088-095-096. IA...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for IAZ010-011-029- 030. && $$ DISCUSSION...Skow AVIATION...Boyne