FXUS63 KARX 051728

AFDARX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service La Crosse WI

1228 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Showers and some rumbles of thunder along and south of I-90 

  this morning with some leftover showers and storms possible 

  for portions of northeast Iowa and far southwest Wisconsin 

  this afternoon.

  

- Seasonable temperatures are expected through early next week 

  with high temperatures ranging from the mid 70s to mid 80s. 





- Periodic shower and storm chances from the weekend through 

  early next week, but confidence in timing and placement is low

  (20 to 40%) chance.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 1112 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026



Today - Thursday: Rain This Morning, Dry and Seasonable for the 

Afternoon through Thursday



Light to moderate rain continues, mostly for areas along and south 

of I-90 early this morning as a theta-e axis sits from central Iowa 

into southern Wisconsin. This boundary clips portions of northeast 

Iowa and far southwest Wisconsin for our CWA allowing for continued 

chances of rain and some rumbles of thunder through the mid 

afternoon for these areas. By this evening, the boundary shifts 

further south, which in turn ends precipitation chances for the CWA. 

In general, despite most of the rain being stratiform, some areas in 

northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin could pickup 0.5 to 1" of 

rain through the afternoon as PWATs remain in the 1.25 to 1.75" 

range and deep warm cloud depth (between 3 and 4km). The latest

HREF LPMM does have some signals for portions of northeast Iowa

and far southwest Wisconsin to receive up to 1" of rain. 

Outside of those areas, everywhere else should see less than 

0.25". A caveat or two for this is if a more heavy shower is 

overhead or is some training goes on then these totals could be 

higher in a given local area. For the rest of this afternoon 

through Thursday, a surface high moves overhead resulting in 

weak flow aloft. This will keep any precipitation out of the 

area and high temperatures will be in the 70s to mid 80s. 



Friday - Early Next Week: Seasonable Temperatures with Periodic 

Storm Chances



The main jet stream remains off to our north through the weekend 

then sags southward for early next week. Deterministic models 

continue to show multiple perturbations moving through the Upper 

Midwest during this period, however the exact location and timing of 

where storms end up is low. Another area of uncertainty is exactly 

how far north the richer Central Plains airmass can advance as this 

will play heavily into the probability of any storms. One area of 

higher confidence is Saturday into Sunday as ensembles and 

deterministic guidance favor this timeframe as having higher storm 

chances (40 to 55%).



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026



Primary concern over the next 24 hours is the likelihood (70%)

of fog across much of NE IA and SW WI tonight into early

Thursday as light winds through the lower 4 kft of the

atmosphere occur and skies clear. Expect IFR/LIFR conditions,

particularly in river valleys, so have included this at LSE.

Expect additional adjustments over the 2 TAF cycles. Otherwise,

winds will generally light and variable until late in the period

when southerly winds at 5 to 10 knots return.



&&



.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WI...None.

MN...None.

IA...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Cecava/Skow

AVIATION...Ferguson