FXUS63 KARX 051128

AFDARX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service La Crosse WI

528 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Periodic showers early this morning gradually shift to the

  east and weaken through the day.



- Drier for the end of the week and well into next week.



- Seasonal temperatures on the docket to end the week with

  another stretch of warmer weather to start next week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 1200 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026



Today: Rain Finally Comes to an End



The stacked low responsible for our prolonged stretch of wet 

and dreary weather to start November finally opens into a wave 

and lifts northeastward early this morning. The lower 

tropospheric deformation zone/surface low gradually elongates 

and dissipates over the region by sunset with the departure of 

its upper level support. The accompanying rain showers likewise 

wane and shift east through the day. Overall additional rainfall

amounts for most locales look to be less than a tenth of an 

inch. Low clouds will be a bit slower to dissipate with a 

trailing upper tropospheric wave sliding down across the MN 

Arrowhead and into Wisconsin later today and tonight, keeping 

cyclonic flow in place into Friday afternoon.



Friday into Next Week: Drier, Seasonal Temps till Sat, Warmer 

Early Next Week



Large scale descent in the wake of our the upper wave will lead

to clearing skies and cooler temperatures for Friday. The 

entire region will almost certainly (>95%) drop below freezing 

Friday night into Saturday morning. Users should note that, 

since the growing season has already ended, no Freeze Watches, 

Frost Advisories, or Freeze Warnings will be issued until 

spring.



After a northern and southern stream wave pass well to our 

northeast and southwest, respectively, on Sunday, heights aloft 

rise into the new work week. Temperatures will once again rise 

to above normal for this time of year, likely (70-90% per 05.01z

NBM) above 60 for Monday and the upper 50s into the middle of 

next week. The next chance of noteworthy precipitation may not 

arrive until the end of next week at the earliest.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 528 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026



IFR conditions will continue throughout the morning before switching 

to MVFR for the afternoon and early evening hours as a low 

pressure system begins to depart the region. As a result, light 

rain showers across the area will begin to diminish in coverage 

with cigs improving to MVFR for the afternoon hours. Eventually,

cigs will return to VFR during the overnight hours after 06z 

Friday. Winds will remain from the north throughout the TAF 

period at around 10-15 kts before decreasing to under 10 kts 

overnight. 



&&



.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WI...None.

MN...None.

IA...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Ferguson/Skow

AVIATION...Naylor