FXUS63 KARX 032012

AFDARX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service La Crosse WI

212 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Potential for very light precip tonight into tomorrow morning

  and Thursday, mainly flurries. However, low potential for 

  freezing drizzle may present itself depending on exact 

  temperature details.



- Above freezing highs likely (50-95%) Thursday afternoon. 

  Temperatures cool back down for Saturday but then likely (75%)

  rise back above normal for early next week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 210 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026



Occasional very light precip chances



Northwesterly flow aloft looks to continue for at least the first 6 

days of the forecast with the 02.00z CMCE/GEFS means suggesting 

quasi-zonal flow may return after weeks of absence next Monday. As 

is typically the case in this flow pattern, occasional disturbances 

ejecting out of Canada would bring potential for light precip 

provided enough moisture is present.



Late tonight into Wednesday, one of this disturbances approaching 

from the northwest, bringing a narrow axis of moisture along with 

it. Progged 03.15z RAP and 03.12z HRRR soundings depict shallow 

moisture with some saturation in the DGZ in our northwest. That 

said, forcing for ascent appears to be marginal. Have therefore 

introduced only a slight chance (20%) for flurries. As the column 

warms through the morning, moisture reduces does as well and 

flurries should end. However, if saturation is maintained beyond mid-

morning, a risk for freezing drizzle would present itself. This risk 

is low (<15%) but will need to keep an eye on it.



Next precip potential arrives Thursday into Friday as an upper 

disturbance dives southeastward early Thursday followed by a 

stronger wave early Friday. For early Thursday, progged soundings 

suggest that saturation with sufficient lift for precip will occur 

but, given considerable dryness around 700mb before the wave 

arrives, duration looks to be short and amounts low. Not 

surprisingly NBM PoPs are on the low side given the low QPF but, 

with 03.12z HREF/REFS pointing toward a good portion of areas east 

of the Mississippi having a 50%+ chance for precip, have boosted 

PoPs toward other, higher consensus blends to get more locations a 

mention of precip. As for precip type, given saturation at the DGZ 

in the 550-700mb layer, should get light snow. However, as the wave 

departs, this layer dries out considerably while the low levels warm 

to around -5C as southwesterly winds ramp up. Should the low levels 

remain saturated after mid-morning, freezing drizzle would result. 

Examining progged soundings, holding onto enough low level moisture 

appears unlikely at this time, so have kept all precip mentions 

snow. Moving ahead to Thursday night into Friday, guidance continues 

to focus forcing just to our east with Clark/Taylor potentially 

seeing a short burst of snow. Given the warm advection during the 

day Thursday, 850mb temperatures along and south/west of I-94 may 

(40-90% per 03.00z LREF) remain above freezing, so could see some 

rain or a short bit of freezing rain if precip does defy the odds 

(current chance <15%) and occurs there.



Above freezing Thursday afternoon, then murky



Aforementioned warm advection Thursday likely (50-95%) lead to highs 

above freezing Thursday afternoon. After the cold front pushes south 

Friday, temperatures return to the teens and 20s for a short period. 

However, a signal for quasi-zonal flow aloft to return is seen 

across long range ensembles, favoring a return to temperatures above 

normal (around 30 this time of year) starting Sunday. 03.13z NBM 

interquartile ranges for highs and lows early next week remain 

large, around 10 degrees, but the 25th percentile rises above 30 for 

Monday and Tuesday, lending confidence toward an above normal early 

week.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 1115 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026



VFR conditions and light winds to prevail through the next 24 hours. 

A very low chance for flurries will be possible overnight and into 

tomorrow morning, mainly for areas west of the river and portions of 

NC Wisconsin. These should not have any impact on visibilities but 

some associated VFR stratus will begin to move in from the 

west, impacting the KRST terminal mainly after 12Z tomorrow.



&&



.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WI...None.

MN...None.

IA...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Ferguson

AVIATION...Barendse