FXUS63 KARX 021746

AFDARX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service La Crosse WI

1146 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Light snowfall chances (30%) in northeast Iowa tonight. Low

  light snow chances (<10%) Wednesday morning west of the

  Mississippi River Valley. Similarly low (20-30%) light

  snowfall chances Thursday morning through Friday morning north

  of Interstate 90 in Wisconsin. 



- Warmer than normal temperatures Thursday fluctuate some to

  start the weekend, returning to above normal through the

  weekend into next week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 204 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026



Light Snow Grazes Northeast Iowa Tonight:



An open wave on early morning upper level GOES WV imagery

progresses southeast along northwest flow, grazing snowfall

chances (<20%) for the southwestern half of the forecast area,

primarily in northeast Iowa locally. Northeastern extent of 

snowfall band remains forecast detail to remain cognizant of, 

dependent on lingering low level dry air limiting widespread

saturation and availability of lingering residual moisture. 

Regardless, minimum overall amounts expected (<0.5").



Light snowfall probabilities plummet as they approach the

forecast area from the northwest on Wednesday morning (LREF) due

to separation in the longer synoptic wave; northern stream well

to the northeast of the forecast area and southern stream well 

to the southwest. Additional precipitation chances Thursday 

morning through Friday morning differ between and within LREF 

members due to vast differences in nature of an extratropical 

cyclone sagging southeast over the eastern Great Lakes.

Regardless, highest local chances remain north of Interstate 90

in Wisconsin. Other than a select few members of the GEPS that 

suggest a slight warm nose in central Wisconsin causing freezing

rain chances, mostly snow with a mix of rain is expected. 



Warmer Thursday & Most Of The Weekend:



Besides the GEFS (02.00Z), higher LREF confidence (70-100%) for

above normal 2 meter temperatures come Thursday. Differences in

phasing and deepening of a subsequent extratropical cyclone 

over the eastern Great Lakes through Friday into the early 

weekend causes fluctuations in confidence come Saturday. While 

the GEFS remains adamant for 0% probabilities, the GEPS and EPS 

suggest 30-50% probabilities for near normal high temperatures 

Saturday as the wave and accompanying cold tongue slide 

southeast. This inter-ensemble member disagreement persists 

into next week as the GEFS keeps probabilities below 10% until 

Tuesday while the GEPS and EPS only increase from 40-60% 

probabilities on Sunday.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 1128 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026



A FEW-BKN deck of stratocumulus is present at issuance south of

a CCY-CMY line. While portions of this deck have increased in

coverage over the past hour, expect it to remain just southeast

of LSE or, if a ceiling does occur, it should be brief. Moving 

ahead to tonight, a few flurries may (30%) occur southwest of a

RGK-LNR line but reductions in visibility to under 6 miles are

not expected. MVFR stratus may develop as well after 06z but 

confidence in sky cover is too low to include several hours of 

MVFR near the end of this period with this update.



&&



.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WI...None.

MN...None.

IA...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...JAR

AVIATION...Ferguson