FXUS63 KAPX 271755 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 155 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry with seasonable temperatures through at least mid-week. - Cooler with shower chances returning to end the week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025 High pressure remains in control across the Great Lakes, maintaining quiet conditions across the region. A shallow layer of low-level moisture lingering over Lake Huron will continue to produce some patchy clouds drifting into northeast Lower and eastern Upper through the morning. Otherwise, skies look to remain mostly clear with abundant sunshine for most areas. Afternoon highs will climb into the 50s. Tonight stays calm and cool with radiational cooling likely bringing overnight lows into the upper 20s to low 30s across northern Lower with mid 30s to low 40s across eastern Upper. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Still looks like we will hang on to the stretch of dry and calm weather for a couple more days before a more unsettled pattern takes hold heading into the start of November. Broad upper-level ridging over the Great Lakes and Ontario will keep things mainly quiet through at least Wednesday, with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies and highs generally in the 50s. Nights will stay on the chilly side with good radiational setups, dipping into the 20s and 30s. By late week, the pattern begins to shift as the ridge breaks down and a deep trough digs into the central and eastern U.S. A developing low looks to lift northeast through the Ohio Valley and toward the Great Lakes Thursday/ Friday. Most of the steady rain associated with the aformentioned system looks to stay to our south and east, but we'll start to see cooler air filtering in behind it with increasing low level moisture off of the Lakes... best shower potential becoming centered in favored lake effect areas with time. As the deeper trough settles overhead, temperatures will steadily fall back closer to early November normals, highs mainly in the 40s Friday through the weekend, with overnight lows in the upper 20s / 30s. Could see some lake enhanced rain showers through the weekend lingering into early next week depending on how long the trough sticks around. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 154 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Expecting predominantly VFR conditions through the period. Outside chance for brief and spatially small low VFR to high MVFR CIGs later tonight into early Tuesday (which has been sort of a trend), and a pocket or two of transient BR/FG. Otherwise, southeast winds during the daytime hours continue, with a few gusts ~15KTs, and dry conditions. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT Wednesday for LHZ345>349. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ341. && $$ SHORT TERM...NSC LONG TERM...NSC AVIATION...JLD