FXUS63 KAPX 270427

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

1227 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Dry with seasonable temperatures through at least mid-week.



- Cooler with shower chances returning to end the week.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Issued at 213 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025



Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:



Sharp upper level ridging in the process of building directly 

overhead early this afternoon, with its equally impressive surface 

reflection extending from the western Great Lakes east across much 

of northeast NOAM. Attendant deep subsidence resulting in dry 

weather across the Northwoods, with just some shallow lake enhanced 

cumulus rotating above the landscape. Filtered sunshine and a slowly 

modifying overhead airmass is resulting in temperatures that are 

running just a bit above normal...with current readings in the lower 

to middle 50s.



Upper level high pressure will continue to expand north through the 

region tonight and Monday...shunting rather vigorous shortwave 

trough into the Tennessee Valley by Monday afternoon. 



Primary Forecast Concerns:



Minimal...with main focus on temperature trends.



Details: 



More quiet conditions tonight and Monday, with just some shallow 

Lake Huron induced clouds rotating into northeast lower and parts of 

eastern upper Michigan...especially again later tonight into Monday 

morning. Otherwise, near perfect conditions for an excellent 

nocturnal/diurnal temperature response tonight and Monday away from 

those lake cloud areas...with mostly clear/sunny skies and a dry low 

level environment. Again looking at widespread lows tonight down 

into the 20s in our interior colder locations...with readings 

staying several degrees "warmer" near the big waters and under 

those passing lake clouds. Highs Monday back into the lower and 

middle 50s.



&&



.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Issued at 213 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025



Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:



Rex block configuration to the large scale flow regime still 

expected to unfold this week as deep troughing closes off across the 

Tennessee Valley and upper level ridging "folds" across the northern 

Great Lakes and southern Ontario. Still evidence of rather 

significant changes heading into the end of the week as that 

Tennessee Valley low gets punted northeast in response to next 

southeast diving Canada Wave. Eventual formation of deep overhead 

troughing the likely result by this weekend...bringing the return to 

more classic start of November weather to the Great Lakes. 



Primary Forecast Concerns:



Temperature trends and addressing late week shower potential.



Details:



Persistent dry east flow expected to now keep our area dry through 

at least Thursday. Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies expected, 

with likely an uptick in clouds during the afternoon hours with 

diurnally-driven shallow cumulus development. Temperatures will run 

near to a bit above specific normal values, with highs Tuesday 

through Thursday mostly in the 50s and lows in the 20s and 30s.



As mentioned...return of deep troughing anticipated heading into the 

end of the week and weekend. Primary surface cyclogenesis within the 

front-side of this evolving trough currently anticipated to remain 

off to our south and east...and that is likely where the more 

significant precipitation will reside. Eventual retrogration of 

Atlantic moisture and likely development of lake moisture 

contribution within a cooling low and mid level environment will 

bring at least some threat for showers Thursday night into the 

weekend....with best shower potential becoming centered in favored 

lake effect areas with time. Temperatures will trend cooler, with 

highs Friday into the weekend likely not getting out of the 40s for 

most (actually rather normal for the start of November).



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 1227 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025



Largely VFR. Watching some marine-driven cloud cover drifting

west from Lake Huron. With calm winds, some BR / FG are

possible... namely at APN, but to a lesser extent, CIU and MBL

too. Anticipating the marine-driven clouds to drift over

northern lower into the day... but cloud bases anticipated to

remain VFR through the forecast period. E to SE winds will be a

touch breezier than in recent days... with some 15kt gusts

possible in the afternoon. 



&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...None.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...MSB

LONG TERM...MSB

AVIATION...HAD