FXUS63 KAPX 092353 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 753 PM EDT Fri May 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated fire danger today. - Slight chance for showers tonight/Sat morning - Becoming warmer with lingering fire danger Sunday-Monday && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 324 PM EDT Fri May 9 2025 Abundant dry air is in place in northern MI this afternoon, with minimal cloud cover. However, low pressure moving east from Hudson Bay will drag a cold front across northern MI tonight. An associated band of cloud cover and weak radar returns, is seen over northern/western Lk Superior, extending into w central MN. It should be a struggle for the incoming front and narrow moisture band to produce precip. But not a hopeless struggle. An axis of small MuCape looks to remain to our west, but mid-level lapse rates remain steep. Well-defined accas band will thus accompany the frontal zone. A slight chance of showers will reach western Chippewa Co by mid-evening, expanding across the rest of eastern upper and into far northern lower MI closer to midnight. This slight chance pushes down to M-32 and M-72 overnight. A slight chance lingers past sunrise in a good portion of northern MI, as somewhat enhanced post-frontal moisture interacts with the first bit of diurnal heating. That mixes out with time, and no pops are in the afternoon. Even after steering dew points toward the low end of guidance, min RH levels for Saturday are higher than earlier forecast. Will remove any mention of elevated fire danger for Saturday (it remains for later in the weekend). Lows tonight 40 to 45f. Highs Saturday near 60f north to the lower 70s far south (cooler where a north breeze is onshore). && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 324 PM EDT Fri May 9 2025 Ongoing midlevel ridging continues to span across the southern Canadian Providences this weekend. At the same time, more southerly toughing develops closed midlevel low pressure over the Ark- Lat-Tex boarder. Subsidence aloft over the Great Lakes region will support quiet and dry weather Monday along with temperatures surging well above normal for mid May. Daytime highs in the 80s for most of central lower with dew points in the 40s/50s will create RH's meeting critical thresholds for potentially dangerous fire weather conditions. Luckily southerly flow will be relatively light but gusting up to the teens. Too early to declare, but elevated fire weather conditions will likely be in store for Northern Michigan this Monday. At the same time, a closed midlevel low over the Ark-La-Tex will advect to the Midwest this Tuesday while weakening as it approaches. A surface level cut off low will push enough energy to generate a few rounds of light scattered showers as early as Tuesday and enough instability for a couple elevated thunderstorms Wednesday and beyond. Weak forcing mechanisms, a lack of deep southerly moisture and PWAT's around the third quartile of climatological average for May indicate pretty scattered light showers and storms this week. Best chance for convection and higher QPF at this time remain around the Thursday night/Friday night timeframe as a cold front finally pushes across the Great Lakes region. No heavy rainfall or severe weather is expected along with the majority of the CWA should just be expecting mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers through midweek, but future guidance will give a clearer picture on potential impacts. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 750 PM EDT Fri May 9 2025 VFR conditions expected through the period. Skies gradually become BKN100 tonight, with an iso sprinkle or -SHRA possible. Brief period of FEW-SCT020-060 early Saturday, diminishing during the daytime hours. Winds become north to northwest during the day as well, with gusts AOB 20 KTs in spots. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JZ LONG TERM...ELD AVIATION...JLD