FXUS63 KAPX 090235 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1029 PM EDT Thu May 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread frost/freeze conditions tonight across northern lower - Elevated fire danger on Friday with low RH and warming temperatures - Quiet and overall dry weather conditions this weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1022 PM EDT Thu May 8 2025 Current forecast remains on track. Expect widespread freezing to sub-freezing temperatures across northern MI. Freeze warning has been issued as a result (only for northern lower MI) with impacts to vulnerable vegetation and crops likely. Warmer on Friday, with very dry conditions leading to elevated fire danger. See short term discussion below for additional details. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 221 PM EDT Thu May 8 2025 Pattern/synopsis: Surface high slides slowly south/east into the Great Lakes with rising heights and upper ridging pushing into the area from the upper midwest. A very dry airmass with PWAT's less than 0.30" (less than 50% of normal). This will set the stage for cold temperatures tonight and elevated fire danger on Friday. Primary Forecast Concerns: Temperatures tonight - just how cold will it get (especially in areas closer to the Lake Michigan coast). RH trends on Friday and if they exceed critical fire weather thresholds. Forecast: Excellent radiational cooling conditions tonight with clear skies, light winds and a very dry ambient airmass. There could be a few wisps of cirrus over western parts of the area but nothing that would have much influence on temperatures. Used a blend of the HRRR/RGEM for lows, which yields widespread 20s to lower 30s. Kept is simple with regard to headlines - going with a freeze warning for all of northern lower. It is likely that some of the immediate coastal areas remain near or just above freezing but subfreezing readings will be likely in those counties just inland. Given the bud vulnerabilities currently, these temperatures have the potential to cause damage to our cherry/apple growing areas. Friday...high pressure overhead resulting in lots of sunshine. The airmass continues to slowly warm and we should see high temperatures more firmly into the more seasonable 60s in many areas. Very little moisture on forecast soundings and with deep afternoon mixing, minimum RH's may go into the teens in some areas. Certainly an elevated fire danger day with the main limitation to further fire weather issues being the lack of wind. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 221 PM EDT Thu May 8 2025 Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Midlevel ridging continues to build across the Great Lakes Region on Saturday with the southern jet stream across the U.S/Mexico border. A weak cold frontal boundary will drag across the CWA at the start of forecast period; providing enough lift to generate a few convectively driven showers. Most areas will only see a few clouds rather than observing rainfall due to the large amount of dry air near the surface. Temperatures gradually warm this weekend and early next week. Highs in the upper 60s on Saturday, slowly increasing to the low/mid 80s by Monday (finally feeling like spring). At the same time, midlevel closed low pressure builds over the Ark- La- Tex border tied to southern stream flow. This unsettled weather makes its way to the Ohio Valley by the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe. Dew points will surge into the 60s next week. Rounds of scattered showers will be likely next week. Long range ensembles and cluster analysis still struggling with a consensus solution with regard to location and timing, thus continuing uncertainty on when the onset or ending of showers. More details will come with future model guidance. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1022 PM EDT Thu May 8 2025 VFR conditions expected through the period with skies SKC to SCT250. Winds becoming mainly light & variable/calm tonight, becoming southwest/northwest on Friday. Dry conditions prevail. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT Friday for MIZ016>018-020>036- 041-042-097>099. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...JLD SHORT TERM...JK LONG TERM...SJC AVIATION...JLD