FXUS63 KAPX 051803

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

203 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Shower/ thunderstorm chances continue through tonight,

  locally heavy rain possible. 



- Seasonable temperatures persist through the end of the week 

  with occasional shower chances.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 255 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026



Broad troughing and its attendant cold front will continue 

making slow progress across northern Michigan through tonight 

into Thursday, bringing a few rounds of showers and embedded 

thunderstorms along the way. For today through tonight, shower 

coverage is expected to steadily increase as deeper moisture 

spreads overhead and becomes increasingly coupled with stronger 

upper-level support. The better focus for more widespread 

showers/ thunderstorms gradually shifts southeast through the 

day, with the highest rainfall totals favored across northeast 

Lower, particularly toward the Saginaw Bay region. Localized 

heavier rainfall remains possible with WPC continuing to 

highlight mostly all of northern Lower Michigan for today. 

Guidance also continues to favor a little more forward progress 

with the front on Thursday, allowing the better shower chances 

to gradually exit southeast through the afternoon. 



Looking beyond Thursday, overall forecast thinking remains 

largely unchanged, with the larger-scale trough expected to 

become established across the Great Lakes through the weekend 

into early next week. This should keep any meaningful heat 

suppressed to our south while also maintaining periodic 

opportunities for showers as subtle waves rotate through the 

mean west to northwest flow. That said, there continues to be 

little indication of any prolonged stretch of wet weather, with 

dry periods likely separating any passing disturbances and 

perhaps cooler temperatures as well.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...

Issued at 158 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026



Have been dealing with mostly MVFR conditions throughout the

day...except for prevailing IFR at MBL (pocket of colder water

in the Lake Michigan nearshore may be aiding in some advection

fog development)...and mainly VFR at KCIU. Expectation is for

another round of rain to develop during the late afternoon/ 

evening given deep moisture in place and increasing forcing.

Anticipate a return to IFR conditions at the northern Lower

terminals between the rain and fog/stratus redevelopment

overnight. Conditions will improve Thursday morning.



&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...None.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...NSC

AVIATION...JPB