FXUS63 KAPX 031818 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 218 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated shower/storm possible on Independence Day; otherwise, turning warmer and more humid through Saturday. - Next appreciable rain and thunder chances return Saturday night - Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 214 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Closed upper-level low pressure now sits over Quebec with amplified troughing situated downstream over the eastern seaboard. Heights aloft in the process of rising locally in response to ridging upstream. That ridge axis to become centered overhead late Friday before attention turns to incoming shortwave troughing and associated area of low pressure passing by to our north Saturday night/Sunday. Stretched out frontal boundary emanating from that system will drive increased shower/storm chances for the latter half of the weekend. More zonal flow expected to prevail early next week with surface high pressure sagging in from the north. Low confidence heading through the middle and latter parts of next week with current trends supporting occasional shower/storm chances. Forecast Details: Little in the way of sensible weather this afternoon with just some shallow cu development, primarily near Saginaw Bay. Some hazy/smoky skies as well owing to Canadian wildfires well to our northwest. Mainly clear skies tonight with light/calm winds. Lows ranging from the upper 40s in the coolest spots and through the 50s over the majority of the forecast area. Ridging alluded to above continues to build across the western Great Lakes on Friday with increasing heat/humidity locally as last night's stalled frontal boundary downstate shifts north as a warm front. High temps climbing into the 80s area-wide (upper 80s most likely in downsloping locales on the heels of increasing south- southwest winds). Low chances do exist for an afternoon/early evening pop-up shower or storm -- primarily away from the lakeshores in northern lower. Expecting coverage to be very low, if anything at all, but not low enough to exclude the mention of, especially given the possibility to impact (briefly) any holiday festivities. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 214 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Day 2-3 (Friday night - Sunday): A hot/humid day expected Saturday. 50th percentile high temperature probabilities feature highs in the low-upper 90s with 90th percentile climbing into the low 100s across parts of northern lower. Even 10th percentile in the low 90s for most areas. The deterministic forecast (closer to that 50th %) still has highs within a handful of degrees of record at a few of northern MI climate sites (GLR/TVC/PLN/APN). Dew points in the 60s to low 70s certainly giving an oppressive feel by northern MI standards with potential for heat indices to exceed 100 F at times. By Saturday night, mid-level wave and associated area of low pressure are expected to be trekking across the northern tier of the country. This should provide the region's best shot at more numerous showers and storms by late Saturday night into Sunday. Crude look at severe parameters through this time frame suggests perhaps a low end severe weather threat, highly dependent on frontal timing. If frontal timing winds up being later on Sunday, severe chances would climb. Worth noting SPC's Day 3 convective outlook clips parts of Mackinac/Chippewa counties in a Marginal Risk for Saturday night. Day 4-5 (Monday - Tuesday): Passage of the late weekend system should provide some relief to weekend heat/humidity as high pressure settles in to start next week. Primarily dry conditions expected Monday/Monday night with the envelope of solutions wideningTuesday and beyond as several mid-level perturbations trek across the region. However, worth noting that longer range ensemble means generally favor dry conditions continuing through Tuesday as well. Day 6-7 (Wednesday- Thursday): Occasional showers/storms appears more likely mid-late week given a generally more active pattern and better potential for more potent/deeper wave(s) to dive southeast out of Canada into the nation's midsection/Great Lakes. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 145 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 VFR conditions through the period. Winds generally light with a lake breeze this afternoon. Skies mostly SKC with some sites seeing FEW-SCT150. Winds diminish to VRB05kts after 00z. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MJG LONG TERM...MJG AVIATION...ELD