FXUS63 KABR 271932

AFDABR



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Aberdeen SD

232 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Greatest rain chances shift to far northeast South Dakota and

  west central Minnesota from this afternoon through Tuesday 

  night, with the highest chances (50-80 percent) tonight and 

  (30-65 percent) Tuesday. Rainfall amounts are expected to be 

  around a quarter of an inch or less.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 231 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025



At 2 PM CDT, skies are mostly cloudy and there is isolated to 

scattered coverage of rain/rain showers over the CWA. Watching a 

line of CU developing over central/north central South Dakota along 

a cold frontal boundary, where temperatures have warmed into the mid 

50s to low 60s. Elsewhere, temperatures are in the 50s. Winds out 

ahead of a cold front, draped across Corson/Dewey Counties, are out 

of the south at 15 to 30 mph with gusts occasionally up to 40 mph. 

Behind the front, winds are from the northwest.



The cold front/showers will continue to move/develop eastward into 

northeast South Dakota and west central Minnesota this evening. CAPE 

analyzed at generally less than 500J/kg and low to moderate deep 

layer shear around 25-40knots across portions of central into south 

central South Dakota. Despite decent low level lapse rates and more 

than adequate surface vorticity, not really expecting much in the 

way of convective threats other than perhaps a couple of lightning 

strikes.



As low pressure begins to develop/deepen over Nebraska/Iowa late 

tonight into Tuesday, the cold front that works into west central 

Minnesota will stall out/transition to an inverted surface trough. 

Deformation zone/TROWAl-forced precipitation chances will linger 

Tuesday into Tuesday evening mainly over western Minnesota, 

including across the far eastern edge of the CWA. As the surface low 

of this system deepens, the pressure gradient increases as far 

north/west as this CWA, allowing for northwest winds of 15 to 30 mph 

with gusts up to 40 mph to develop Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday 

night.



Beyond that, clusters analysis reveals a positive PNA pattern is, by 

and large, the driving influence in weather conditions around here 

(northwest flow aloft) from Wednesday through next Monday, give or 

take a couple of fast-moving clipper lows navigating the northern 

plains. Much of the thermal advection pattern between Wednesday and 

next Monday is a see-saw battle between post cold-frontal low level 

CAA influence and return flow low level WAA push-back. For now, the 

ensemble-powered temperature forecast does not show much in the way 

of large temperature swings, maintaining highs in the upper 40s to 

mid 50s for much of the forecast period.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 1218 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025



Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG



Periods of -SHRA/-RA are moving across the region this evening, 

with VFR/MVFR CIGs at times. Cannot rule out heavier showers 

(+SHRA) with IFR VSBY across north central SD this afternoon, 

possibly affecting KMBG. Gusty southerly winds from 20 to 30 knot

with some occasionally higher gusts will gradually switch to the 

northwest and diminish through the TAF period.



&&



.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SD...None.

MN...None.

&&



$$



DISCUSSION...10

AVIATION...10