FXUS63 KABR 270546 CCA AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1246 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain is forecast for early Monday morning through Tuesday night, with the highest chances (70-90 percent) Monday into Monday night. There is a 30-60 percent chance for half an inch or more of rainfall generally north of Hwy 14. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1234 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Minor adjustments to the timing of the precipitation has been made to better show what is happening on the radar. Additionally, the Aviation discussion has been updated below for the 06z update. UPDATE Issued at 622 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025 Winds have decoupled a bit, so were finally down to just a few sites still hitting wind advisory criteria. Cant rule out a downslope wind gust or two up into the mid 40s through the evening but otherwise expect everyone else to behave. Otherwise just minor adjustments to onset timing of precipitation. See below for an update to the Aviation discussion. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 220 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025 At 2 PM CDT, skies are partly to mostly cloudy across the Missouri River valley, mostly sunny across the James River valley eastward into Minnesota. Temperatures are warming through the 60s. South winds 20 to 35 mph with gusts 45-60mph have been common throughout the morning into early afternoon. The wind advisory has been allowed to expire across central South Dakota, but expect 15 to 30 mph sustained winds with gusts of 30 to 40 mph to continue there for the rest of daylight mixing time. Elsewhere (except for Traverse/Big Stone Counties in MN), the wind advisory continues through 5 PM CDT for sustained winds of 25 to 40 mph with gusts of 45 to 55 mph. Models/ensembles are still progging a system/cold front to move across the region Monday/Monday night. But, qpf guidance amounts are seen decreasing now. Where previously there was an increasing signal for 0.50in or more of rainfall across the central and eastern two- thirds of the CWA for Monday/Monday night, that is now either shifting away from this CWA or diminishing. The latest wrinkle seems to be more energy shifting southeastward as the upper trough undergoes shearing aloft over the northern plains. Models suggest this energy shifting southeast will undergo cyclogenesis over Nebraska/Kansas/Iowa/Missouri Tuesday/Wednesday. The cold front moving across the CWA becomes an inverted surface trof reflection of deformation/TROWAL-zone aloft straddling the border of MN and the Dakotas Tuesday/Tuesday night, placing PoPs now across the I-29 corridor of the CWA during this period, and causing north- northwesterly winds to increase a bit on Tuesday, compared to prior model solutions. Beyond that, the flow pattern is still basically unchanged (moderate positive PNA pattern), with this CWA under mostly dry northwest flow aloft. The CWA is within that tug-of-war temperature zone where some days, the warmer air south/west of the CWA can move into the CWA and things warm up, but then an occasional cold fropa pushing southeast across the region draws some cooler air down into the region from the north/east. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1234 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR/MVFR ceilings are currently over the TAF sites as lower clouds are starting to move over the area. Ceilings will slowly move MVFR ceilings to the TAF sites overnight into Monday morning. Additionally, there are rain showers to the west that are moving into central South Dakota currently and will move into northeastern South Dakota during the morning/afternoon. When rain showers reach the terminals, ceilings and visibilities are forecast to drop slightly. Winds will be fromthe south southeast today, gusting up around 30kts over most sites. Once the front moves over the terminals this afternoon, winds will shift to be from the northwest. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...12 DISCUSSION...10 AVIATION...12