FXUS63 KABR 221746 AAC AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1246 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Wind gusts of 25-30 miles per hour will linger into the afternoon across northeast SD and west central MN, diminishing from west to east across the forecast area by the end of the day. - On Monday, strong southerly winds gusting to 30-35 mph combined with afternoon humidity of 30-40 percent will create elevated fire weather concerns. Fires that start may spread quickly. - Temperatures will be near-normal to slightly above normal through Tuesday (with highs ranging from the upper 40s to 50s today and the 50s to low 60s Monday and Tuesday). && .UPDATE... Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 The aviation discussion has been updated for the 18Z TAFS. UPDATE Issued at 938 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 An area of rain/snow showers have lingered a bit longer across parts of central/south central SD this morning. Extended mention of PoPs into the late morning hours. The back edge of this precip was relatively widespread across western SD earlier, but now has since shrunk or dried up as it's progressed east-southeast as the upper level jet support wanes and shifts farther away from the area. Low stratus cloud cover looks extensive to our north and west this morning. Delayed the onset of any clearing or breaking up of this overcast sky until later this afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 153 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 Currently monitoring post-frontal winds across the forecast area this morning. Observations do show some sites reaching Wind Advisory criteria at times (45 mile per hour gusts), but these higher winds appear to be transient enough such that a headline is not necessary this morning. Also seeing some radar returns this morning, but webcams and surface observations indicate that precipitation is struggling to reach the surface. The expectation for the next few hours is for that trend to continue, and precip chances will drop off around sunrise. Winds are also expected to decrease over the next few hours, with the strongest gusts pushing south and out of the area. By this afternoon, gusts will be down to around 20 miles per hour, still out of the north before switching to southerly overnight tonight with the arrival of a high pressure center. The broad pattern of an upper-level ridge over the western CONUS will continue Monday through Wednesday. This ridge won't allow for quite as much warm air to move into the are, and 850mb temperatures will range near the median to 75th percentile for this time of year (roughly -1C to +5C). This translates to surface temperatures closer to seasonal than they have been the past few days, but still expecting about 5-10 degrees above normal. These temperatures will also help to create some elevated fire weather concerns for the start of next week, particularly on Monday. Peak afternoon gusts will reach up to 30 miles per hour, which coincides with humidity around 30 to 40 percent over parts of central and north central South Dakota. Humidity keeps the area from Red Flag Warning criteria, but it will still be dry enough to push the Grassland Fire Danger Index to High to Very High over much of the area. Precip potentially returns Tuesday as a jet streak it set to ride down the front side of the ridge and clip the Aberdeen forecast area. However, model soundings show a fairly deep dry layer near the surface during that time, so any elevated showers that develop will most likely amount to nothing more than virga. The ridge will flatten out on mid to late week, and with the zonal flow, the back end of a jet streak will move over the area. This may be enough influence for some precipitation development, but current ensemble forecasts place the best precip chances east of the forecast area. Otherwise, expect a slight decrease in temperatures to become normal to just below normal when the ridge does end up flattening out. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG MVFR cigs will persist through the late afternoon at KABR/KATY/KMBG terminals. Some improvement is expected to occur at KPIR a bit earlier in the afternoon. VFR conditions are expected to return for all TAF sites by late this afternoon or early evening. Northerly winds will remain gusty through mid afternoon at KATY. Otherwise, winds will be gradually diminishing during the afternoon and turning east to southeast tonight into Monday morning. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Vipond DISCUSSION...BC AVIATION...Vipond