FXUS63 KABR 220655

AFDABR



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Aberdeen SD

155 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Lingering strong wind gusts of 35-50 miles per hour will linger 

through the early morning hours, decreasing through the day today. 

Similarly, light precipitation over the area this morning is 

expected to dissipate around sunrise. 



- Strong southerly winds gusting to 30-35 mph combined with 

afternoon humidity of 30-40 percent will create elevated fire 

weather concerns on Monday. Fires that start may spread quickly. 



- Temperatures will be near-normal to slightly above normal through 

Tuesday (with highs ranging from the upper 40s to 50s today and the 

50s to low 60s Monday and Tuesday).



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 153 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026



Currently monitoring post-frontal winds across the forecast area 

this morning. Observations do show some sites reaching Wind Advisory 

criteria at times (45 mile per hour gusts), but these higher winds 

appear to be transient enough such that a headline is not necessary 

this morning. Also seeing some radar returns this morning, but 

webcams and surface observations indicate that precipitation is 

struggling to reach the surface. The expectation for the next few 

hours is for that trend to continue, and precip chances will drop 

off around sunrise. Winds are also expected to decrease over the 

next few hours, with the strongest gusts pushing south and out of 

the area. By this afternoon, gusts will be down to around 20 miles 

per hour, still out of the north before switching to southerly 

overnight tonight with the arrival of a high pressure center. 



The broad pattern of an upper-level ridge over the western CONUS 

will continue Monday through Wednesday. This ridge won't allow for 

quite as much warm air to move into the are, and 850mb temperatures 

will range near the median to 75th percentile for this time of year 

(roughly -1C to +5C). This translates to surface temperatures closer 

to seasonal than they have been the past few days, but still 

expecting about 5-10 degrees above normal. These temperatures will 

also help to create some elevated fire weather concerns for the 

start of next week, particularly on Monday. Peak afternoon gusts 

will reach up to 30 miles per hour, which coincides with humidity 

around 30 to 40 percent over parts of central and north central 

South Dakota. Humidity keeps the area from Red Flag Warning 

criteria, but it will still be dry enough to push the Grassland Fire 

Danger Index to High to Very High over much of the area.



Precip potentially returns Tuesday as a jet streak it set to ride 

down the front side of the ridge and clip the Aberdeen forecast 

area. However, model soundings show a fairly deep dry layer near the 

surface during that time, so any elevated showers that develop will 

most likely amount to nothing more than virga. 



The ridge will flatten out on mid to late week, and with the zonal 

flow, the back end of a jet streak will move over the area. This may 

be enough influence for some precipitation development, but current 

ensemble forecasts place the best precip chances east of the 

forecast area. Otherwise, expect a slight decrease in temperatures 

to become normal to just below normal when the ridge does end up 

flattening out.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...

Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026



Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG



VFR conditions have deteriorated to MVFR (KMBG/KABR)/IFR (KATY)

range due to low cigs moving in behind a cold front. The low 

clouds should be reaching the KPIR terminal within the next couple

of hours. Regional radar mosaic shows pockets of very light rain

(or perhaps even a rain/snow mix if it can reach the ground). So,

either vicinity shower or TEMPO mention is included in the first

fewhours of these 06Z TAFs where confidence is high enough to

consider a brief mention of light precipitation. Northerly winds 

should remain gusty through the rest of the night as cold air 

advects in before diminishing in the morning. Ceilings are 

expected to improve/dissipate to VFR at all sites except KATY by 

18z. KATY is forecast to improve to VFR range Sunday afternoon.





&&



.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SD...None.

MN...None.

&&



$$



DISCUSSION...BC

AVIATION...10