FXUS63 KABR 090854 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 354 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Confidence is high that an extended stretch of hot, dry, and windy conditions are likely Saturday through Tuesday. Temperatures may break the 90 degree mark one or more days, which is at or near record highs. - Fire danger will be elevated or near critical from Sunday through Tuesday with southerly winds gusting 30 to 45 mph. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for locations across central and northeast South Dakota on Sunday. - Rain chances return by mid-week, though considerable uncertainty remains. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/... Issued at 352 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 A weak front slides southeast through the Dakotas this morning, settling over southeast SD this afternoon. Even overnight, the front has produced sprinkles at best. Expect the very dry air aloft to keep any precip to a minimum as it moves through this cwa. Any daytime heating induced convection along the front should remain to the south. A building ridge and increasing southerly winds on Saturday bring an elevated fire weather risk. Still some uncertainty as to a need for headlines on Saturday as conditions to meet Red Flag criteria will be marginal. However, models consistently underdo afternoon mixing winds and overdo dewpoints on dry days. Nudged to NBM 90th for winds and the HRRR for dewpoints. North central SD may end up warranting a headline when all is said and done. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 352 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 This period will continue to feature a dominant upper ridge anchored across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. This will lead to a continued stretch of dry and very warm conditions. It will also promote increasing fire danger by late this weekend into early next week. However, all signals point to a pattern change by the latter portion of this period. A majority of the deterministic and ensemble guidance is in relative agreement on progging an upper trough to dig into the Pacific Northwest and other sections of the western CONUS late this weekend into early next week. This feature will deliver increasing chances for precipitation and cooler temperatures to our forecast area the latter half of next week. With the main storm track staying west and north of our area early in the period, we will continue to see deep southwest flow persist across our region. A tightening sfc gradient between low pressure tracking north and east across the Northern High Plains into southern Canada and high pressure across the Great Lakes and parts of the mid Mississippi Valley will lead to a few days worth of hot temperatures and gusty winds. Ensemble data continues to support that idea of well above normal temperatures for Sunday-Tuesday. Chances of seeing temperatures reach or exceed 90 degrees are 50-80 percent across parts of the James and Missouri Valleys. Record high temperatures could be set Sunday and Monday with forecast highs in the low to mid 90s. The combination of these hot temperatures, strong wind gusts of 30-40+ mph and persistent dry fuels with RH values dropping below the 20-25 percent range Sunday and Monday has already prompted the issuance of a Fire Weather Watch for Sunday. Additional headlines into early next week maybe needed as that pattern change doesn't really start to push into our area until closer to midweek. Guidance remains consistent on the overall upper flow pattern by the latter half of next week. An upper trough across the western CONUS will kick out a sfc low pressure system into the Northern Plains by Wednesday and Thursday. This will give our area increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. However, guidance remains at odds when it comes to precipitation coverage and timing. It's still too early to capture any signals of where and when rain chances will be best. A broad brush approach will continue until we get closer and have more clarity. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1221 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Southerly winds will begin the TAF period, but will gradually switch to the north- northeast during the day Friday with the passage of a front. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for SDZ006>008-010-011-016>023-034>037-048-051. MN...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for MNZ039-046. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM...Vipond AVIATION...20