FXUS63 KABR 061922

AFDABR



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Aberdeen SD

222 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- A slight warmup is expected beginning Thursday, with near-normal 

temperatures (highs in the upper 60s to low 70s) expected through 

the weekend. 



- Dry and windy conditions are expected Friday. Humidity of 20-25% 

and wind gusts of 25-35 miles per hour may combine to create 

elevated fire weather concerns over part of northern South Dakota.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 220 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026



Upper-level trough remains the dominant influence over the region 

today, continuing to bring below normal temperatures to the Aberdeen 

forecast area. A high pressure center to the southwest will bring 

northwesterly winds of 10 to 15 miles per hour gusting to 25 through 

the remainder of this afternoon to early evening. Diurnal cumulus is 

also expected to persist through that same period, with mid-level 

moisture supporting some additional cloud cover sticking around 

overnight. As the high pressure progresses off to the south and the 

pressure gradient weakens, winds will become light and variable, 

although generally will carry a southerly component.  



While the broad pattern will hold consistent for the next couple of 

days, slight height rises (~5-10 dam at 500mb Thursday into Friday) 

will facilitate a bit of a warming trend, bringing highs up to near-

normal by Friday. Warm temperatures will push afternoon humidity 

down below 25 percent both Thursday afternoon (lowest in the James 

River Valley) and Friday afternoon (mainly west of the James River). 

Grassland Fire Danger is generally expected to remain low to 

moderate despite the dry conditions, with the exception of part of 

the James River Valley where the lowest humidity and strongest winds 

(gusting to 25 to 35 miles per hour out of the northwest) combine. 

While nothing has been issued on this shift, can't rule out the 

possibility of reaching Red Flag Warning criteria over a portion of 

northern South Dakota. However, there is still plenty of uncertainty 

with both fuel status as well as temperatures/humidity (due to the 

current forecast having minimum humidity sitting at to just above 

the 20 percent threshold). Will continue to monitor conditions for 

future forecasts. 



Pattern will hold through the weekend, and little of note is 

expected other than some slight chances for some light rain showers 

to clip part of central South Dakota Saturday afternoon. With any 

showers that do develop, little to no accumulation is anticipated. 

Upper-level trough to the east will deepen early next week, allowing 

for a weak ridge to exert influence into the region and bring some 

warmer temperatures to start next week. 500mb heights of roughly 570 

dam Monday into Tuesday sit at roughly the 75th percentile for mid-

May. This corresponds to surface temperatures expected to be in the 

70s to low 80s, roughly 5-15 degrees above normal. Nothing 

substantial in terms of precipitation in the extended, but both a 

jet streak set to move overhead and a cold front may potentially 

produce some light showers through Tuesday.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...

Issued at 1212 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026



Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG



VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Main aviation 

focus over the next 24 hours is cloud cover. Diurnal cumulus is 

expected to persist over the forecast area through the rest of this 

afternoon, dissipating this evening. Some additional mid-level 

clouds may continue overnight over northeastern South Dakota and 

western Minnesota, but ceilings will remain well above MVFR 

thresholds. Winds out of the northwest gusting to around 25 miles 

per hour will also persist through the afternoon to early evening 

due to influence from a high pressure center to the southwest. As 

that high pressure moves out of the area tonight, winds will become 

light and variable, although generally carrying a southerly 

component. Winds return to a northwesterly direction Thursday 

afternoon, 5 to 10 knots gusting to 15 to 20.



&&



.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SD...None.

MN...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...BC

AVIATION...BC