FXUS63 KABR 032320 AAA

AFDABR



Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED

National Weather Service Aberdeen SD

520 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Flurries or a light dusting of snow will continue tonight 

  across portions of the region. Pockets of light freezing drizzle

  cannot be ruled out, with limited impacts. Any snow 

  accumulations expected to be around a half inch or less.



- Above normal temperatures are forecast (by 5 to 20 degrees) 

  Wednesday through at least Monday of next week. The warmest air 

  will be overhead Thursday and then again Monday, with highs in 

  the 40s to low 50s.



&&



.UPDATE...

Issued at 518 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026



One more round of light snow is moving southeast out of North

Dakota this evening. It should hit the border within the next 2 to

3 hours. No major changes are planned to the current forecast at

this time.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 320 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026



Watching the western edge of the stratus deck inch closer to 

KPIR/KMBG, but indications suggest clouds fill back in westward 

overnight. Still some remaining low-level moisture and weak lift 

enough to support some light snow/flurries as a weak mid-level 

disturbance also moves south across the Dakotas. Can see this wave 

off to the north on water vapor imagery. Cannot completely rule out 

some light freezing drizzle as well and have inserted mention of 

this in the grids/forecast.



Warmer air then begins to overspread the region Wednesday and 

especially by Thursday. By 00Z Friday, 925mb temps rise to between 

+5C and +10C across the eastern CWA, while central SD may get as 

high as +15C. Still looking at widespread 40s and 50s for highs on 

Thursday, with locations across the far western CWA flirting with 60 

degrees. In general, inherited NBM temps even into early next week 

are showing 30s, 40s, and 50s for high temps, with the warmest 

readings west of the Missouri River.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...

Issued at 518 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026



Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG



A mix of MVFR/IFR cigs will prevail through Wednesday morning.

Brief VFR breaks are possible at KMBG and KPIR this evening before

clouds fill back in. Another round of light snow/freezing drizzle 

moving southeast out of North Dakota this evening will affect the 

taf sites this evening. This precip may drop vsby to MVFR or

briefly to IFR. 



&&



.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SD...None.

MN...None.

&&



$$



UPDATE...20

DISCUSSION...TMT

AVIATION...20