FXUS62 KTBW 270715 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 315 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms today - Much cooler and drier air arrives for the second half of the week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 315 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025 A weak cool front will move across the region later today and tonight preceded by scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. The lower level east to southeast flow will shift to southwest early this afternoon as the front gets closer bringing the more stable marine layer inland keeping rain chances near the coast from around Tampa Bay south lower while the interior and eastern half of the Florida peninsula see more numerous convection. Behind the boundary northwest to north winds will bring some drier air into the area Tuesday. Wednesday into Thursday a stronger cold front approaches and moves across the region, but moisture will be limited so not expecting much more than some additional clouds and possibly a few sprinkles. Behind this boundary breezy northwesterly winds will usher in the coolest air since mid-April for Thursday into the upcoming weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 315 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Areas of MVFR/IFR ceilings will continue early this morning, then scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into early this evening which could cause some more MVFR/local IFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF forecast period. East to southeast winds at around 5 knots will increase to 5 to 10 knots later this morning, shift to southwest early in the afternoon, then west to northwest late this afternoon and evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 315 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025 A weak front will move through the waters later today and early tonight producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Winds will shift to the north behind the boundary tonight into Wednesday. Winds will then shift back to northwest and increase as a stronger cold front pushes through Wednesday night with Small Craft Advisory conditions likely Wednesday night into Thursday night. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 315 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible today ahead of a weak cool front. Some drier and slightly cooler air will move in for Tuesday. Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels with sustained 20 ft winds less than 15 mph, therefore no fire weather concerns are expected. A stronger cold front will sweep through during midweek ushering in much cooler drier air for the second half of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 87 71 84 64 / 40 10 0 0 FMY 88 72 87 66 / 50 20 0 0 GIF 87 69 85 62 / 60 20 0 0 SRQ 86 71 83 64 / 30 10 0 0 BKV 85 64 81 56 / 50 10 0 0 SPG 84 72 80 65 / 30 10 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ Close