FXUS62 KTBW 130131 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 831 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Temperatures warm through the weekend, then cooler air returns early next week. -Hazardous marine conditions expected Sunday night through Monday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 830 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 Quiet evening across the area with just some high clouds here and there. Overnight the combination of light winds and mainly clear skies will allow for some patchy fog to develop over inland areas with temperatures dipping into the 40s and 50s. For Saturday we'll see partly to mostly sunny skies as there will be some more high clouds streaming across the region and with the low level flow becoming east to southeast low level moisture will begin to return with some stratocumulus developing during the afternoon. OVerall the current forecast looks on track with no adjustments needed. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 830 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 Some patchy late night/early morning is expected late tonight into Saturday morning, but most of this will remain away from the TAF sites. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through Saturday. Light winds tonight will become east to southeast at 5 to 10 knots Saturday morning and then shift to onshore at TPA, PIE, and SRQ during the mid to late afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 139 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 High pressure remains over the region through today before shifting eastward this weekend as troughing deepens over the eastern half of the country and a frontal boundary moves into the southeast. This pattern shift will allow temperatures to warm into the mid/upper 70s (and even lower 80s in some spots) for both Saturday and Sunday afternoon while also pulling a warm front northward and bringing slight rain chances for the southern parts of the forecast area Saturday night. The next cold front will then push across the state late Sunday into Sunday night, with no rain expected. Cool and dry high pressure brings us a cooler start to the work week before a warming trend brings above normal temperatures for the rest of the week. && .MARINE... Issued at 139 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 Light east to southeast winds will remain across the waters through much of the weekend before a frontal boundary moves through late Sunday. Winds behind the boundary will become north and then northeast late Sunday through Monday, increasing to advisory levels before diminishing Tuesday through the rest of the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 139 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 No fire weather concerns as relative humidity values will remain above critical levels. Some patchy fog is expected tonight, mainly over inland locations. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 73 55 78 62 / 0 0 0 10 FMY 78 58 81 64 / 0 0 0 30 GIF 74 53 78 59 / 0 0 0 10 SRQ 74 55 79 62 / 0 0 0 10 BKV 74 44 78 53 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 73 60 77 65 / 0 0 0 10 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION...Close DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Carlisle DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Giarratana