FXUS62 KTBW 091331 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 931 AM EDT Fri May 9 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE... .UPDATE... Issued at 930 AM EDT Fri May 9 2025 A frontal boundary continues to stretch across GA/AL/MS to an area of low pressure near LA. Over Florida, surface high pressure northeast of the Bahamas ridges west over Florida through the day. The 12Z morning sounding shows ample moisture with a PWAT of 1.51 inches, deep SW-W flow through the column and cool 500 mb temps around -12C. This moist and unstable pattern will favor an onshore west coast sea breeze to set up once again this afternoon with scattered to numerous showers and storms expected, with the highest coverage over the interior. SPC has placed much of west central Florida in a Marginal Risk for severe storms and parts of the interior and east coast in a Slight Risk for severe storms this afternoon. The biggest threat will be damaging winds and large hail over the interior and east coast. I made some changes to POPs coverage through this evening based on latest radar trends and model guidance. No other changes needed at this time. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 930 AM EDT Fri May 9 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Light and variable winds this morning will increase by mid morning becoming SW around 8-12 knots and continue through the afternoon hours. Similar to previous days, the highest chances of showers and storms will be over the interior later this afternoon, which will likely only impact LAL between 20-03Z, so will hold VCTS at LAL during that time. Winds will decrease to around 5 knots or less after sunset. && .MARINE... Issued at 930 AM EDT Fri May 9 2025 A predominant southeast through southwest wind flow around 10-15 knots will prevail over the eastern gulf waters through the weekend and into early next week. Main hazard each day will be scattered showers and thunderstorms capable of producing locally gusty winds. A surface low and frontal boundary will develop over the central gulf and move eastward over the weekend, which will bring a very wet weather pattern over the eastern gulf waters with even higher chances of showers and thunderstorms on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. This system pushes south and east of Florida by Tuesday evening allowing for clearing conditions as high pressure builds into the central and eastern gulf waters. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 88 76 88 76 / 20 20 70 60 FMY 90 73 90 74 / 20 10 40 40 GIF 90 72 89 73 / 60 30 70 50 SRQ 87 73 88 74 / 10 20 60 60 BKV 89 68 88 68 / 20 20 80 60 SPG 86 76 86 76 / 10 20 70 60 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 7 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...Wynn DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Carlisle