FXUS62 KTBW 070014

AFDTBW



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL

814 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026



...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE...



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Near record warm high temperatures over inland areas each day 

  through the weekend. 



- Isolated to scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and a

  few thunderstorms are expected Friday through Sunday across the

  northern Nature Coast and interior.



&&



.UPDATE...

Issued at 809 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026



It has been another pleasant and warm day with rain-free conditions 

this afternoon. Temperatures were well above average across west 

central and southwest Florida with daytime high temperatures topping 

out in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Rain-free conditions expected to 

continue overnight and on Thursday. Overnight lows will dip into the 

upper 60s to low 70s with daytime highs on Thursday reaching the 

upper 80s to mid 90s. No changes needed to current forecast.



&&



.AVIATION...

(00Z TAFS)

Issued at 809 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026



VFR and rain-free conditions expected through the period. Light and 

variable winds expected overnight, then winds will pick up a bit 

with W-SW winds around 8-13 knots expected during the day on 

Thursday.



&&



.MARINE...

Issued at 809 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026



Winds will shift to southwest to west over the next couple of days 

as a weak boundary drifts in from the north. Over the weekend the 

flow will become south to southwest again and with the boundary in 

the vicinity a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible over 

the northern waters. A stronger front approaches and moves across 

the waters early next week with increasing north to northeast winds 

setting up behind it by Tuesday. No headlines are expected at this 

time.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TPA  73  88  76  90 /   0   0   0   0 

FMY  72  91  71  93 /   0   0   0   0 

GIF  70  94  72  93 /   0   0   0  20 

SRQ  71  87  74  88 /   0   0   0   0 

BKV  67  91  72  92 /   0   0   0   0 

SPG  74  88  76  90 /   0   0   0   0 



&&



Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 4

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 8



For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: 

     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology



&&



.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.

Gulf waters...None.



&&



$$



UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...Wynn 

DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Fleming