FXUS62 KTBW 051842 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 242 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Weather pattern changes over the next couple of days with east to southeast flow setting up and the more typical summertime mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026 The upper level troughing over the eastern U.S. will continue to weaken over the next few days with ridging trying to build west from the Atlantic Ocean. Meanwhile in the lower levels we'll see the surface ridge drift north over the area today and then setup to our north late in the week through the weekend. Today will be the transitional day as the surface ridge moves over the region with a general southerly flow in place. Deep moisture will remain across the area and with the lighter southerly flow we'll see some isolated to scattered morning convection over the gulf waters that could affect coastal areas, then more scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing over land during the afternoon drifting northwest back toward the west coast. For Thursday and Friday, an increasing easterly flow will become established. Plenty of moisture will be across the area and this combined with daytime heating and the sea breezes will lead to scattered to numerous mainly afternoon and evening convection each day. Over the weekend and into early next week, a lighter southeast flow becomes established. We'll still have enough moisture when combined with the sea breezes to allow scattered to numerous mainly afternoon and evening convection to develop each day, but there are signs of some drier air moving in early next week that could lower rain chances some. Daytime highs will be back to near to a few degrees above normal, while overnight lows remain near normal for this time of year. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 228 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026 Showers and storms will continue to develop throughout the afternoon into the evening. Storms that develop inland later this evening have the potential to drift back towards the coast. Overall, the pattern remains unsettled with periods of MVFR to IFR possible. The flow shifts more easterly tomorrow favoring development along the interior in the afternoon drifting back to the coast in the late afternoon/evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 228 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026 Marine conditions will be mostly pleasant outside of showers and thunderstorms today and tomorrow. Easterly winds will surge each evening beginning tomorrow night, but will decrease during the daytime each day. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 228 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026 Fire weather concerns remain minimal as plenty of moisture remains over the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 77 87 77 88 / 30 70 50 90 FMY 75 89 76 90 / 30 90 50 90 GIF 75 87 76 87 / 30 70 40 90 SRQ 74 89 75 90 / 30 80 50 90 BKV 72 88 72 89 / 30 70 50 80 SPG 77 88 77 88 / 30 70 40 90 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 3 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 3 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ Previous DISCUSSION...Close AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Pearce