FXUS62 KTBW 051205

AFDTBW



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL

705 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026



...New AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES... 



- Patchy mist or fog potentially developing early this morning.

 

- Slightly cooler conditions coming over the weekend and into next

  week following a weak cold front.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 217 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026



Low level moisture has led to areas of low clouds overnight and 

could aid in the development of patchy fog this morning. However, 

dry air will move over the area this afternoon and tomorrow thanks 

to high pressure over the area. The drier air will limit afternoon 

showers and storms today and tomorrow. 



Meanwhile, a weak cold front associated with an upper level 

shortwave continues to move towards FL. The front is expected to 

push through Saturday into Sunday. No significant rain chances are 

expected with this frontal boundary as it moves through. Slightly 

drier and cooler air is expected to filter in following the frontal 

passage, with morning lows dipping down into the low 50s to the 

north and mid 60s south.  High temperatures will hover in the upper 

70s through most of the following week. Overall, after the mostly 

dry, weak cold front moves through this weekend, the outlook for 

next week is looking pleasant.



&&



.AVIATION...

(12Z TAFS)

Issued at 703 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026



Some patchy fog across the interior will burn off quickly in the

next hour or two. After that we can expect VFR conditions through

the period with winds generally staying below 10 knots. 



&&



.MARINE...

Issued at 217 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026



Pleasant marine conditions continue today and tomorrow as winds 

remain below 10kts. A cold front will move over the waters this 

weekend, bringing slightly increased northerly winds. Winds 

remain 10- 15kts through most of next week.



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...

Issued at 217 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026



Fire weather concerns remain minimal as RH values remain above 

critical



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TPA  85  71  84  70 /  10  10   0   0 

FMY  86  71  86  71 /  10   0   0   0 

GIF  87  69  88  68 /  10   0   0   0 

SRQ  84  71  83  70 /  10  10   0   0 

BKV  87  69  86  67 /  20  10  10   0 

SPG  82  72  81  71 /  10   0   0  10 



&&



.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.

Gulf waters...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley

DECISION SUPPORT...Delerme

UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Delerme