FXUS62 KTBW 031741 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 141 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 132 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Current water vapor imagery and RAP upper air analysis depicts an upper level low over Florida with a ridge to the east and west. At the surface, there is a stalled boundary to the north near the Florida panhandle. The radar early this afternoon is less impressive than expected with scattered showers with a few rumbles of thunder. MOisture remains elevated near the 95th percentile for early July. This moisture is leading to more widespread cloud cover across the region. The cloud cover is keeping temperatures on the cooler side with most locations currently in the low 80s early this afternoon. Due to the lack of precipitation development, the excessive rainfall outlook has been downgraded from a slight risk to a marginal risk. PW values are more than sufficient for any storms to drop a quick 2 to 3 inches. There was a storm earlier this morning that did realize this potential in Pinellas county but there have not been any storms with rainfall rates near these levels since. The weather pattern remains rather similar going into the holiday weekend. Due to this, PoPs will remain elevated but it will not rain all day are be a complete wash out. With the high PW values, any storms that do develop will be able to produce heavy rainfall rates that may lead to localized flooding generally in areas of poor drainage. High temperatures will be on the cooler side in the mid to upper 80s. Rainfall amounts through the holiday weekend will range from 1 to 4 inches with a low (less than 10% chance) of amounts up to 6 inches. The upper level low begins to lift of the region on Sunday as the ridge begins to build back into the region. This will lead to slightly lowers PoPs and warmer temperatures on Sunday. Going into the next week, there will be a shift into seabreeze behavior as the low dissipates and ridging resumes. This will consist of southwesterly winds Monday and westerly ones going forward, upholding scattered to numerous showers/storms in the late morning and afternoons which build up inland toward the early evening. With that, temperatures will broadly elevate into the upper 80s and lower 90s as next week proceeds. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 132 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Ongoing showers/storms along the coast will temporarily reduce visibilities to MVFR/VFR and have TEMPO lines in the TAFs this afternoon to try to account for these conditions. These showers/storms will continue to move inland this afternoon and evening with mostly dry conditions forecast overnight. In these southwesterly flow regimes showers/storms tend to move onshore near daybreak and have also included a PROB30 late in the TAF cycle around 12-15z. && .MARINE... Issued at 132 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Southwesterly winds between 10 to 15 knots remain in place for the remainder of the week before calming down to 5 to 10 knots over the weekend. A stalled out front over the area will help to enhance shower and thunderstorm development for the period. Higher waves and winds are possible near storms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 132 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Elevated moisture will lead to widespread precipitation throughout the holiday weekend. A shift to a more typical summertime seabreeze regime will return early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 78 89 77 89 / 60 70 70 80 FMY 77 89 76 89 / 60 60 60 70 GIF 75 89 75 89 / 60 70 40 80 SRQ 78 89 76 89 / 70 70 70 70 BKV 73 90 72 89 / 60 60 50 80 SPG 78 87 77 87 / 70 70 70 80 && SeaBreeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 4 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...TBW DECISION SUPPORT...Shiveley UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Shiveley