FXUS62 KTBW 030905 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 505 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)... Issued at 415 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Showers and storms over the Gulf waters have started to move inland across the CWA. Meanwhile, an upper level trough and surface low pressure remain over the peninsula. This is keeping southwesterly winds over the state and pulling ample moisture, which is supporting the current activity. Given the multiple days of rainfall and the training of storms today could bring the potential for isolated minor flooding. Additionally, the widespread cloud coverage will keep afternoon highs from getting above the upper 80s today and on Friday. The aforementioned U/L trough should begin to move north to northeast but PWs over 2 inches remain in place, which will continue to support period of showers. && .LONG TERM (SAT-WED)... Issued at 415 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 During the weekend, moisture remains fairly high with guidance keeping POPs high. Later into next week, drier air gradually starts to wrap into the area as the low lifts out, allowing coverage of rain to regulate. However, southwesterly winds will keep scattered to numerous showers and storms shifting onshore in the late morning and early afternoon, building into the interior through early evening. Temperatures will also increase gradually getting back into the 90s area-wide. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 136 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Area of low pressure slowly moving over the area will bring ample moisture to the state. As a result, periods of showers and storms are anticipated through the period across terminals. It will be difficult to pinpoint where the storms will develop, but most of the guidance keeps on and off rain and thunderstorms during most of the day. At this time, it seems as we go into the evening, most of the activity should begin to diminish, at least for a few hours, after around 03Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 415 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Southwesterly winds between 10 to 15 knots remain in place for the remainder of the week before calming down to 5 to 10 knots over the weekend. A stalled out front over the area will help to enhance shower and thunderstorm development for the period. Higher waves and winds are possible near storms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 415 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Ample moisture remains over fire districts as area of low pressure moves over the state supporting periods of showers and storms through the period. Therefore, no fire weather concerns are anticipated during this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 88 78 89 77 / 90 60 90 60 FMY 86 76 89 76 / 90 70 80 50 GIF 87 75 88 75 / 90 50 90 30 SRQ 87 77 89 76 / 90 70 90 60 BKV 88 73 90 72 / 90 50 90 40 SPG 85 78 87 77 / 90 70 90 70 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 4 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Delerme DECISION SUPPORT...Carlisle