FXUS62 KTBW 021852 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 152 PM EST Mon Feb 2 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dangerously cold conditions through early this morning. - Hazardous marine conditions are ongoing with a high risk of strong rip currents along area beaches today. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 149 PM EST Mon Feb 2 2026 High pressure over the Gulf will start to drift overhead overnight. This will bring us light winds and clear skies setting us up for a radiational cooling night. This will help us dip to around freezing once again Tuesday morning but should be warmer then the last two nights. We will also see RHs overnight in the 70's and 80's. This along with the light winds and temperature below 35 degrees will bring perfect conditions for widespread frost overnight. High pressure will drift off in the Atlantic as ridging remains overhead for Tuesday allowing for warm up with highs finally getting into the 60's by the afternoon hours. By Wednesday another significant cold front will start to push through the southeast. This will cause some warmer air to advect over the area with highs in the 70's during Wednesday afternoon. This warm up wont last long as the cold front start to push through overnight on Wednesday bringing some showers with it. Behind it we will see colder air filtering in once again in the afternoon keeping temperatures in the upper 50's to low 60's. The cold air filtering in won't be historical like last weekend but we will still see temperatures in the 30's for everyone by Friday morning with highs in the 60's. High pressure will settle into the Gulf for next weekend with highs in the 70's and lows in the 40's both days. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 149 PM EST Mon Feb 2 2026 VFR conditions through the period with winds generally out of the north. && .MARINE... Issued at 149 PM EST Mon Feb 2 2026 Winds will continue to slowly dissipate throughout the day and into the overnight hours. By tomorrow winds will be out of the east around 5 to 10 mph. These winds will shift to the south on Wednesday ahead of our next cold front that will push through Wednesday night. Winds will shift quickly to the northwest behind the front with speeds between 20 to 25 knots with a small craft advisory likely. These winds will stay high overnight before slowly calming down to 10 to 15 knots by Friday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 149 PM EST Mon Feb 2 2026 RH's will go up slightly for tomorrow afternoon but critical RHs will still hang around. Winds will remain light so no red flag warnings will be needed. As temperatures start to slowly warm Wednesday and Thursday RH's will get above critical levels with showers possible Wednesday night with the next cold front. Critical RHs for inland areas will be possible again Friday afternoon but winds will stay below critical levels. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 56 38 65 45 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 60 35 69 46 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 57 34 65 42 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 57 37 65 43 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 55 28 65 34 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 57 45 64 51 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Tuesday for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-DeSoto-Hardee- Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando- Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee- Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Polk-Sumter. High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST this evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas. ColdWeather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Tuesday for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto- Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Hillsborough- Inland Lee-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Polk. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley DECISION SUPPORT...Anderson UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Anderson