FXUS62 KTBW 020005 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 805 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Rather messy pattern setting up for the next several days as upper level troughing sets up along the eastern seaboard with a weakening cool front moving into the southeast states. Global models are still depicting different scenarios with the details of if/where a surface low could develop and how far south the boundary moves, but either way it does look we'll see periods of showers and thunderstorms moving across the region through at least Friday, potentially through the weekend. At the present time showers and thunderstorms are moving across the coastal waters toward the coast and we are beginning to see the west coast sea breeze get active. Convection will continue to develop and spread inland this afternoon and evening becoming most numerous over the interior. Expect a break in the convection later this evening before more scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms develop over the coastal waters and begin to move onshore later tonight into Wednesday morning. For the rest of Wednesday through Friday the rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue. The exact timing differs with the guidance, but overall it looks a rather wet and gloomy period. Locally heavy rainfall still looks possible with flooding of urban, low lying, and poor drainage areas the main threat. Over the weekend, the 12Z GFS now keeps a weak area of low pressure over the eastern gulf with rounds of precipitation continuing while the 12Z ECMWF moves it off the east coast and would therefore allow some drier air to move into the region limiting overall precipitation coverage. For now have continued with the scattered to numerous PoPs as the final outcome will likely be somewhere in between. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 746 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 The scattered convection from earlier will continue to weaken for the remainder of the evening so VFR conditions will prevail for most of the overnight hours but a few passing SHRA may occur at times. Rain chances will increase further by Wednesday morning as scattered/numerous showers and storms move through the area with periods of SHRA/TSRA possible at any time throughout the remainder of the day as deep moisture remains in place. Overall flight conditions will generally be VFR outside of convection but periods of restrictions will be possible should any direct impacts at terminals occur from thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 South to southwest flow will remain across the waters through the week with scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms each day. Wind speeds will generally remain less than headline criteria, although daily thunderstorms will produce locally gusty winds and hazardous boating conditions. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Deep moisture will remain over the area, with no humidity concerns. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected each day through the week. Winds will remain less than 15 mph, expect gusty and erratic near thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 78 88 79 87 / 40 80 80 90 FMY 75 91 77 89 / 40 60 50 60 GIF 74 89 76 89 / 40 80 40 80 SRQ 76 88 77 87 / 40 70 80 80 BKV 72 88 74 88 / 40 80 80 80 SPG 78 86 78 85 / 40 70 80 90 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 5 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 5 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Giarratana DECISION SUPPORT...Wynn UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Oglesby