FXUS62 KTAE 221849 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 249 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 223 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026 - Severe to exceptional drought will continue or worsen with little to no rainfall over the next week. - Haze and smoke may present issues for those with sensitive respiratory conditions over the next day or so due to wildfires. Late afternoon and evening hours may feature the poorest air quality. - Warm and fair weather will make beaches attractive. Be aware of what beach flags are flying and what they mean with respect to rip currents if visiting. && .SHORT TERM & LONG TERM... (This Evening through next Saturday) Issued at 223 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026 Southwesterly to westerly flow is expected through Monday ahead of the next approaching cold front. This front is forecast to move southward through the area Monday night with winds becoming north and eventually northeasterly in its wake Tuesday. Cloud cover is expected to linger over the area in the wake of the front, making Tuesday high temperatures a bit tricky to forecast. A shortwave passing across the Southeast CONUS late Tuesday through Tuesday night may help generate some showers and perhaps an elevated thunderstorm or two. However, not much rainfall accumulation, if any, is expected with this system. Another warming and moistening trend is forecast to pick back up Wednesday through Friday when another dry cold front is forecast to arrive in time for the weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 103 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026 Another round of fog/low clouds expected late tonight into Monday morning; guidance is more bullish north of ECP and TLH this time around. Maintained IFR during this time frame for all terminals, but brought down to LIFR where confidence is highest at both DHN and VLD. Cannot rule out LIFR at ECP and TLH again, as there is a gradient in flight categories just north of these sites, which will be refined in the next set of TAFs with additional guidance. && .MARINE... Issued at 223 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026 Gentle to moderate westerly breezes will prevail across the waters through Monday before a cold front moves through Monday night. In the wake of the front, winds turn northerly and then easterly on Tuesday, generally remaining gentle to moderate through Thursday. Little impact to mariners is expected through the forecast period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 223 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026 Southwesterly to westerly winds are expected to continue through Monday ahead of an approaching cold front. Along with high mixing heights, dispersions should be fairly high on Monday especially across inland areas. The cold front will sag southward through the area Monday night, with northerly and then northeasterly winds in its wake. Cloud cover is forecast to actually increase behind the front, with a slight chance for showers and perhaps a storm or two late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Humidity should remain above critical thresholds even in the wake of the front. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 215 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026 Little to no rain is forecast for the next 7 days. Drought remains our only hydrologic concern. Severe to exceptional drought continues for most of the area. For more information on local drought impacts, visit www.weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 60 86 61 78 / 0 0 0 10 Panama City 63 77 61 77 / 0 0 0 10 Dothan 58 84 59 76 / 0 0 0 10 Albany 58 85 59 71 / 0 0 10 10 Valdosta 58 86 61 73 / 0 0 10 10 Cross City 56 81 58 79 / 0 0 0 20 Apalachicola 62 75 61 72 / 0 0 0 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Merrifield LONG TERM....Merrifield AVIATION...LF MARINE...Merrifield FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield HYDROLOGY...DVD