FXUS62 KTAE 202039 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 439 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 306 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026 - Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue through the next couple days. Highs will range from the low to middle 90s across inland areas. - Rain chances continue through Monday. Afternoon thunderstorms this evening, and possibly again tomorrow, may have gusty winds and small hail, in addition to lightning. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (This Evening through Saturday) Issued at 306 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026 The closed upper low over the eastern Gulf will continue spinning, gradually moving west through the next day or so, providing the region with enough forcing for ascent to produce unsettled weather. On Tuesday, a shortwave moving across the Tennessee Valley will pull this upper low northeast and away it goes, taking rain chances with it. Increasingly drier northeast air begins to filter into the region beginning on Wednesday and persisting through the weekend, keeping rain chances near or below 10%. Expect daytime highs generally in the low to mid 90s through Wednesday, Thursday through Saturday highs will look to be in the mid to upper 80s. Overnight lows follow a similar pattern with lows generally in the low to mid 70s through Thursday morning, dropping into the mid to upper 60s Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 116 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026 SHRA/TSRA right now is mostly focused east of ECP and south of TLH. Maintained PROB30s for the rest of the afternoon at all the sites as isolated TSRA will develop. Otherwise VFR conditions prevail for the next 12 hours or so. Some patchy fog may develop tonight at TLH, ABY, and VLD. The highest confidence is at VLD where MVFR/IFR vsbys/cigs are expected. Winds remain light out of E/NE. && .MARINE... Issued at 306 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026 Gentle to moderate east to northeast breezes expected through midweek with high pressure generally north of the waters. Within the seabreeze zone, moderate onshore flow will develop each afternoon into the evening before switching offshore during the overnight hours. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected through midweek as well. A cold front is slated to move through the Gulf waters later this week. Expect moderate to fresh northeast winds to accompany the front towards next weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 306 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026 High pressure remains anchored to our north continuing northeast transport winds into early this week. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will develop each afternoon into the evening hours with the better coverage along and south of I-10 associated with the seabreeze. Erratic and gusty winds, in addition to lightning, are the main concerns. Afternoon minRHs will fall into the mid-40s to mid-50s over the next few days. Heat indices the next few days will be between 96-104F during the afternoon hours. Low dispersions today will be located from I-75 south into the Florida Big Bend. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 306 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026 Generally around an inch of rainfall is expected over the next week from afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Isolated higher amounts could be possible under any downpours. There are currently no riverine flooding concerns. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 72 92 72 93 / 10 20 10 10 Panama City75 91 74 91 / 20 30 10 20 Dothan 71 93 71 94 / 10 10 10 10 Albany 71 93 71 93 / 0 10 10 10 Valdosta 72 91 71 92 / 10 20 20 10 Cross City 72 90 72 90 / 30 50 10 50 Apalachicola 74 87 74 87 / 30 40 30 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Oliver LONG TERM....Oliver AVIATION...Young MARINE...Oliver FIRE WEATHER...Oliver HYDROLOGY...Oliver