FXUS62 KTAE 050613 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 113 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 111 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026 - There is a medium chance of dense fog across much of the region through the mid-morning hours today. A Dense Fog Advisory may eventually be needed. - Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will generally diminish but continue until a cold front passes the region on Friday. Dry weather and a somewhat cooler air mass will fill in behind the front for this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Thursday) Issued at 130 PM EST Wed Nov 4 2026 A slowly approaching cold front associated with an upper level low currently over the Midwest is producing the scattered showers and thunderstorms for our Tri-State region today. Southerly/southwesterly flow will continue the warm and muggy temperatures until the front arrives in a couple of days. Temperatures will be in the upper 70s to low 80s this afternoon and tomorrow, with overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s. PoPs will remain in the forecast with better chances for our AL and GA counties ranging from 30-50%, and our Florida counties having about a 20% chance and less for Thursday. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 130 PM EST Wed Nov 4 2026 The anticipated cold front is forecast to arrive to the region on Friday. Cooler and drier air will filter in behind the front, clearing out the rain chances for the remainder of the weekend. Afternoon temperatures will cool to the low to mid 70s, with overnight lows falling into the 50s, and 40s by the start of the work week. Low temperatures in the upper 30s may be possible for our northern counties in SE AL and SW GA by Sunday morning. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 111 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026 Fog will develop this morning throughout the area, with visibilities as low as 1/2 SM at TLH, ABY, and VLD, and 1SM at ECP and DHN. Ceilings around 300 ft. are forecast to bring all sites down to LIFR starting around 08z. Both the fog and cloud deck should quickly lift out after sunrise, and all sites with the exception of DHN are expected to return to VFR conditions by noon. For DHN, clouds will take a bit longer to lift due to an approaching cold front and the associated scattered showers, and thunderstorms are likely nearby towards the end of the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 130 PM EST Wed Nov 4 2026 Southerly breezes will continue but weaken, until a cold front passes east across the waters on Friday. Following the front, gentle to moderate northwest and northerly breezes will arrive and continue through the weekend. Winds will clock around northeasterly on Sunday night and Monday, as high pressure builds eastward across the southern Appalachians. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 130 PM EST Wed Nov 4 2026 Poor to low afternoon dispersions can be expected over the next few days. The moist airmass will remain in place along with scattered wetting rains will continue today through Friday, prior to the passage of a cold front. Following the frontal passage, winds will shift northerly with drier air filtering into the region. MinRH values will be in the 30s%, yet remain above critical. Afternoon temperatures will be in the 70s with overnight lows in the 50s and 40s. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 130 PM EST Wed Nov 4 2026 No flash flooding and no river flooding is expected for the next 7 days. Through this evening, slow-moving lines of showers and thunderstorms will be capable of localized intense rainfall, which could bring a few pockets of short-lived nuisance flooding. Showers on Thursday and Friday will be less capable of localized nuisance flooding.&& .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 83 66 80 59 / 10 10 20 0 Panama City 80 67 79 58 / 10 20 10 0 Dothan 81 63 79 53 / 60 40 10 0 Albany 82 65 80 53 / 20 20 10 0 Valdosta 84 67 82 57 / 10 10 20 0 Cross City 84 67 83 62 / 10 10 10 0 Apalachicola 80 68 79 61 / 10 10 20 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for FLZ007>014-108-112-114. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Montgomery LONG TERM....Montgomery AVIATION...Oliver MARINE...Haner FIRE WEATHER...Montgomery HYDROLOGY...Haner