FXUS62 KTAE 022326 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 726 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Through Thursday) Issued at 135 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 A weak frontal boundary will slide south across the forecast area overnight and Thursday. This will lead to a northwest to southeast gradient in PoPs for Thursday, with high PoPs in the SE Big Bend and minimal PoPs across SE Alabama. Temperatures will reflect the PoP gradient as well, will higher max temps in the northwest, where the drier airmass will allow for more summer sun. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday night through Friday night) Issued at 135 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 The frontal boundary will meander in the the northeastern Gulf by Thursday night into Friday. Best rain chances will continue to be along and southeast of the boundary, with lower rain chances to the north and west. The same will apply to temperatures, with higher temperatures across the drier northern and western portions of the forecast area. While there is some chance for low pressure to develop along the tail end of the frontal boundary in the Gulf, the more likely scenario favors weak development along the Atlantic Coast. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 135 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 The frontal boundary will gradually dissipate over the weekend, with an upper ridge building back over the region and PoPs and temperatures returning back to near seasonal levels. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 715 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Scattered TSRA continues around the area this evening, mainly near ECP, ABY, and VLD. These should wane during the next hour or two. VFR conditions will generally prevail thereafter. However, IFR- MVFR cigs may move into VLD around 09-14z. For now, have maintained MVFR cigs with a SCT LIFR/IFR deck as models have wavered on that in recent runs. Otherwise, scattered TSRA will develop again Thursday afternoon, mainly near VLD and TLH where PROB30s have been introduced. Lgt/VRB winds tonight become light N/NW on Thursday. && .MARINE... Issued at 135 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Light to moderate westerly to southwesterly breezes continue across the northeastern Gulf thanks to high pressure anchored in the Atlantic. A weakening cold front moving into the waters tonight and Thursday will increase west to northwest breezes temporarily. A weak area of low pressure may develop along the tail end of the remnant front over the northeastern Gulf Friday or Saturday. Otherwise, late night and early morning thunderstorms are expected the next several days; they'll come with gusty winds, lightning, and the potential for waterspouts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 255 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Highest chances for wetting rains will shift to mainly east of the Flint and Apalachicola Rivers by Thursday and Friday with a drying trend further west as a weak front moves through the area. There will be an increasing potential for high dispersion values across much of the northern and western portions of the region on Friday. Otherwise, scattered thunderstorms each afternoon may produce brief erratic and gusty winds. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 135 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Higher rain chances will shift towards the southeastern Big Bend over the next few days. Rainfall totals through Friday are expected to generally remain below 2 inches. However, locally higher amounts, with localized flooding will remain possible. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 89 73 91 74/ 80 40 40 10 Panama City 89 76 94 76 / 70 40 20 10 Dothan 90 72 94 73 / 50 10 10 0 Albany 90 72 93 74 / 70 30 20 0 Valdosta 90 73 92 74 / 70 40 50 10 Cross City 88 72 90 73 / 90 50 90 40 Apalachicola 87 76 89 77 / 80 50 40 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ114. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Camp SHORT TERM...Camp LONG TERM....Camp AVIATION...Scholl MARINE...Camp FIRE WEATHER...Camp HYDROLOGY...Camp