FXUS62 KTAE 021817 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 117 PM EST Mon Feb 2 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 112 PM EST Mon Feb 2 2026 - There is a high chance of hazardous marine conditions Wednesday night and Thursday with Small Craft Advisory conditions expected. - There is increased potential for navigational hazards due to low water levels through Tuesday in the bays, harbors, inlets, and tidal rivers of the Florida Big Bend. - There is a high chance of rain showers affecting the region on Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Tuesday) Issued at 112 PM EST Mon Feb 2 2026 A moderating trend will commence over the 24 hours as high pressure slides east of the area. We are still expecting one more night of freezing temperatures tonight over a large portion of the area, but it will not be as cold as previous nights. Overnight lows will generally range from the upper 20s to mid 30s away from the coast, except a few mid 20s are still possible across the southeast big bend. Tuesday will see warmer conditions with highs reaching the mid 60s for most areas under partly cloudy skies. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 112 PM EST Mon Feb 2 2026 Our next cold front will affect the region on Wednesday with widespread rain showers expected. Temperatures will have moderated by then, so no wintry precipitation is expected. Instability is also expected to be low, so there is only a slight chance of any thunderstorms, and those would be confined to near the coast if they occur. Severe weather is not expected. Following the front, winds will again be northwesterly. This will bring in cooler air, but the airmass will not be as cold as we just experienced. Overnight low temperatures are expected to fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s by early Friday morning. High temperatures for Friday are expected to be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. This weekend currently looks dry as we will be in between systems with an upper trough exiting the east coast and another trough digging into the western states. This could signal the beginning of a pattern change by next week with a warming trend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 112 PM EST Mon Feb 2 2026 VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Some smoke from from nearby prescribed burns may drift near TLH this afternoon and evening, but confidence is too low to include any categorical impacts at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 112 PM EST Mon Feb 2 2026 In the Florida Big Bend, there is increased potential for navigational hazards due to low water levels through Tuesday in bays, harbors, inlets, and tidal rivers. After high pressure transits the waters through Tuesday, a cold frontal passage is expected late Wednesday into Wednesday night. There is a high chance (80-90 percent) that another Small Craft Advisory will be needed for Wednesday night through Thursday. Looking ahead, another cold front looks to sweep across the waters Friday and Friday night with additional advisory-level conditions possible. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 112 PM EST Mon Feb 2 2026 Transport winds will become southwesterly on Tuesday with high dispersions for most of the area, except for areas east of the I-75 corridor and the FL SE Big Bend. Widespread rain showers are expected on Wednesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 112 PM EST Mon Feb 2 2026 There are no flooding concerns. In the Florida Big Bend, there is increased potential for navigational hazards due to low water levels through Tuesday in bays, harbors, inlets, and tidal rivers. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 31 65 47 63 / 0 0 10 90 Panama City 41 66 55 65 / 0 0 40 90 Dothan 33 66 50 60 / 0 0 70 80 Albany 29 64 47 60 / 0 0 40 80 Valdosta 29 64 44 63 / 0 0 10 90 Cross City 26 63 38 68 / 0 0 0 50 Apalachicola 40 61 53 62 / 0 0 20 90 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DVD LONG TERM....DVD AVIATION...Young MARINE...DVD FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...DVD