FXUS62 KRAH 032330 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 630 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 215 PM Tuesday... -Snow amounts remained largely the same, however ice amounts have increased as the probability of freezing rain across the southeastern half of the CWA have increased. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 215 PM Tuesday... 1) Rain starting late tonight through Wednesday will transition to a brief period of wintry mix or light snow late Wednesday night into early Thursday, with minor accumulations possible. 2) Several reinforcing shots of Arctic air are expected late this week through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... As of 215 PM Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Rain starting late tonight through Wednesday will transition to a brief period of wintry mix or light snow late Wednesday night into early Thursday, with minor accumulations possible. Surface high pressure over the Upper Mississippi Valley this afternoon will gradually shift southeast through Wednesday. Meanwhile, a surface boundary extending from eastern Texas into the Tennessee Valley, associated with a surface low, will inch eastward into the Mid-Atlantic by late this evening. The surface low is expected to track across Tennessee, then through Georgia and South Carolina, and move offshore by Thursday morning. As the associated cold front approaches, rain will overspread central North Carolina overnight into early Wednesday morning. Thermal profiles at the surface and aloft will remain too warm for frozen precipitation through most of the day Wednesday, resulting in predominantly liquid precipitation. Cold air advection from the northwest will increase late Wednesday evening, with ensemble guidance indicating precipitation transitioning to a wintry mix and eventually snow as moisture exits the region. The timing of this transition remains somewhat uncertain, but areas along and north of the I-85 corridor—and possibly the northern Coastal Plain—could see a changeover as early as late Wednesday evening. As northerly flow strengthens overnight, precipitation is expected to transition to all snow across much of the area into the pre-dawn hours Thursday. For areas south and east of the Triangle, a shallow warm nose may persist, supporting a period of freezing rain or sleet before ending as light snow early Thursday. Precipitation will taper off quickly Thursday morning, with lingering moisture mainly confined to the coast. Accumulations are expected to be light overall, with the greatest snow totals near the Virginia border as temperatures fall into the 20s prior to precipitation ending. Should trends continue to support snow accumulations of around 1 inch or greater, or impactful ice accretion, a Winter Weather Advisory may be needed late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. KEY MESSAGE 2...Several reinforcing shots of Arctic air are expected late this week through the weekend. A series of fast moving shortwave troughs embedded within northwesterly flow will bring reinforcing shots of cold air to the region. For the most part these waves will sweep through absent of any precip, although there may be just enough moisture ahead of a wave on Friday to support some isolated rain/snow along the NC/VA border. More than anything, these waves will keep temperatures in check with daytime highs remaining well below normal for early February. With the exception of Thursday (which will see highs in the upper 40s), daytime highs will generally stay in the upper 30s to mid 40s, with overnight lows in the mid 20s to around 30. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 630 PM Tuesday... 24 Hour TAF Period: Sub-VFR conditions will develop late tonight and continue through Wednesday as a cold front moves into the area and briefly stalls. A few light showers will be possible overnight , followed by an area of low pressure and more widespread rain on Wednesday focused mainly from RDU south and east to RWI and FAY. Ceilings are expected to lower to IFR and LIFR through the day, expanding northwest to GSO and INT as additional precip breaks out behind the front, which may briefly change to a wintry mix before ending Wednesday night. Outlook: A return to VFR conditions will occur Thursday and should generally continue through the weekend. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... && $$ DISCUSSION...CA/DL AVIATION...BLS