FXUS62 KMHX 051743

AFDMHX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC

143 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026



.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

No major changes through the period.



&&



.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Precip chances wane this afternoon.



2) Return to a more typical summertime pattern Thursday onwards. 

However, the heat returns.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Last day of above average precipitation chances as a 

stalled upper trough that had brought multiple days of heavy rain 

and thunderstorm activity to the area finally shifts north and gets 

absorbed by an incoming upper level trough moving through the Great 

Lakes region. At the same time, mid level shortwave energy shifts to 

the north and west as well. On top of this, for the rest of the 

afternoon, surface boundary to the north and west of the area 

continues to gradually dissipate while S'rly flow keeps PWATs around 

the 2-2.5" range today. Any leftover upper level forcing combined 

with the daily seabreeze should be enough to kick start additional 

rounds of isolated showers and weak thunderstorms this 

afternoon and evening with heavy to torrential rainfall 

possible. While storm motions should be progressive, storms will

be capable of dropping a quick 1-2", resulting in minor 

flooding concerns. After we lose daytime heating, rain chances 

go down drastically. Highs today have gotten into the mid 80s 

with lows tonight forecast to be in the 70s. 



KEY MESSAGE 2...A more zonal pattern aloft sets up as upper troughs 

and mid level shortwaves generally remain to the north of the 

Carolinas. This will result in a return to more avg to below avg 

rain chances across ENC from Thur on into next week as main forcing 

will be from the daily seabreeze. While chances will certainly be 

lower ample instability will build across the region given the 

partly cloudy skies and moist environment so wouldn't be shocked at a 

daily 20-30% chance of shower or thunderstorm activity from Thurs 

onwards along he inland moving seabreeze each afternoon. Given the 

lower precip chances the main story from Thurs onwards will be the 

return of the heat with highs getting into the upper 80s to low 90s 

each day into next week. COmbined with dewpoints generally in the 

70s each day will bring heat indices between 95-105F each day. While 

below heat headline criteria this will make it feel uncomfortably 

hot over the next few days. Not much relief overnight as lows get 

into the 70s each night. 



&&



.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Primarily VFR conditions are noted across ENC outside of any ongoing 

shower/tstm activity where a mix of MVFR vis/ceilings are 

currently seen. This will continue into the evening before 

shower and tstm chances end. Have kept the persistence forecast 

going at TAF sites with PROB30 groups this afternoon. As we get 

into tonight, guidance once again suggests we have the potential

for periods of low stratus and patchy fog after 06Z Thurs 

across much of ENC with NBM/HREF probs of ceilings below 3 kft 

at about 20-40%. However, will note, guidance has been 

pessimistic these last few nights and despite the ample low 

level moisture most areas have remained VFR outside of 

shower/tstm activity. Given this, have kept all sites VFR 

through Thursday afternoon with just a FEW/SCT deck of MVFR 

ceilings tonight at all TAF sites between 09-12Z Thurs. Winds 

remain light and S'rly through the period. 



Outlook (Thursday night through Monday): Primarily VFR conditions 

and light winds are forecast into early next week as high pressure 

builds into the area. Given ample low level moisture there is a low 

end chance for patchy ground fog to develop each morning.



&&



.MARINE...

Outside of ongoing shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon, 

benign boating conditions are noted withS'rly winds at 10-15 kts 

across all waters and 2-4 ft seas across the coastal waters. 

Conditions wont change much over the next few days as a Bermuda high 

nudges in from the east resulting in lower precip chances across our 

waters from Thurs into early next week and steady S-SW'rly winds at 

5-15 kts with 2-4 ft seas. Will note there is a low end chance for a 

thermal trough to set up starting Fri and going through the weekend 

as inland areas heat up. This could result in brief periods of near 

SCA conditions across the Pamlico, Croatan/Roanoke Sounds and 

coastal waters north of Cape Hatteras at times each afternoon and 

evening.



&&



.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-

     196-199.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...RCF

AVIATION...RCF

MARINE...RCF