FXUS62 KMFL 120824 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 324 AM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 311 AM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 - Mostly dry and seasonable weather through Saturday afternoon. A few showers may develop late Saturday afternoon and Sunday as a front reaches central Florida. - Moderate risk of rip currents continues today for all Atlantic beaches. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 311 AM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 Models show good agreement in bringing deep high pressure over the area in the wake of a dry FROPA, which will keep generally dry and pleasant weather conditions in place today with no mentionable POPs. As the sfc ridge moves into the northern half of the peninsula, winds across SoFlo to a more easterly flow today. 00Z MFL sounding data depicts very dry air above 850mb, along with PWATs around 0.6 inches. Model PWATs go even lower (0.4-0.5 inches). The air mass will remain fairly stable today with mild temperatures and pleasant weather conditions prevailing. Afternoon highs will remain in the upper 70s or around 80 near the Gulf coast. Similar conditions continue on Saturday, except for a light modification of the air mass allowing for highs to be a couple of degrees warmer. Coldest temps will remain around the Lake region with Saturday morning lows in the mid-upper 50s, while the metro areas of Soflo should remain in the upper 60s. Some low-level moisture also filters into the southern-most areas of the CWA Saturday afternoon, with NBM bringing 20-30 POPs for much of Miami-Dade. Thus, a few passing showers will be possible, mainly south of I-75. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 311 AM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 For Sunday, ensembles show a strong mid/upper low developing over the NE CONUS migrating east, which drags an associated sfc boundary into the SE states and northern Florida. This will weaken the ridge and allow for additional moisture to push northward across SoFlo, with 20-40 POPs mainly north of I-75, and up to 60 percent chance of showers with embedded thunderstorms for the Atlantic metro areas Sunday late morning and early afternoon. The front impacts should be short-lived as reinforcing high pressure quickly follows. By Sunday evening, another shot of northerly flow will bring colder/drier air advection across Soflo. POPs drop back to single digits on Monday, and close to zero through the rest of the long term. Coolest days should be Monday and Tuesday with afternoon highs in the mid-upper 70s. Coldest morning should happen Tuesday before sunrise with lows dipping into the upper 40s to low 50s around Glades and northern Hendry counties. Warming trend then follows on Wednesday with highs back into the upper 70s to low 80s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025 VFR prevails at all terminals through the next 24 hours. Light and variable flow will become easterly 8-10 kts after 15Z. A gulf breeze may briefly shift winds at APF to a westerly flow after 18Z. Light and variable flow returns tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 311 AM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 Moderate easterly winds continue through early Sunday, then winds shift northerly and increasing behind a frontal passage. Conditions will likely reach advisory levels by Monday morning with the stronger winds, especially over the Atlantic waters. Meanwhile, conditions should remain fairly benign through the weekend with a few showers returning to the southern Atlantic waters by Saturday. Gulf Stream Hazards: None. && .BEACHES... Issued at 311 AM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 A moderate risk of rip currents continues for all Atlanticbeaches today. The risk will again increase early next week with the passage of another frontal system. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 78 68 80 69 / 0 0 20 60 West Kendall 79 63 81 66 / 0 0 30 60 Opa-Locka 79 66 81 68 / 0 0 20 60 Homestead 79 66 81 68 / 0 0 30 60 Fort Lauderdale 77 68 79 68 / 0 0 20 60 N Ft Lauderdale 77 68 79 68 / 0 0 20 60 Pembroke Pines 79 66 81 67 / 0 0 20 60 West Palm Beach 77 66 79 67 / 0 0 10 50 Boca Raton 78 67 81 68 / 0 0 10 60 Naples 79 61 82 66 / 0 0 10 40 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...17