FXUS62 KMFL 050823 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 323 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACH... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 313 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026 - Minor coastal flooding expected during times of high tide. - Dangerous beach conditions are expected across the Palm Beach coast today. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 313 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026 A much different weather scenario is now developing across SoFlo with mid-lvl drier air now filtering into the region. A large trough/low system is migrating eastward across the SE CONUS, and will keep the best associated dynamic support well to the north of SoFlo today and Friday. CAPE/instability parameters seem to get highly suppressed across the region as strong sfc high pressure builds in the wake of a frontal passage. Ensembles and NBM Wx/POPs coverage drops into the 10 percent range for each afternoon, with mainly warm and mostly sunny conditions prevailing. This is a much welcomed change from previous days, which will help those communities still struggling with flooded roads and lingering water. Pressure gradients have also relaxed across the area, with winds becoming generally light and variable through the morning hours, then ENE in the 5-10kt range this afternoon. Increased daytime heating and decreased cloud cover will result in afternoon highs reaching the mid to upper 80s each day. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 313 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026 Latest long range model solutions remain in fair agreement about reinforcing high pressure and drier conditions prevailing across the region during the weekend in the wake of a dry FROPA. Forecast POPs/Wx coverage remain around single-digits each day through Sunday. Then for early next week, models depict a potential mid-lvl trough moving across the area and bringing increasing chances of showers for the late Monday-Tuesday timeframe. But even so, max POPs seem to remain in the 20-30% range. The latest trend in guidance is also to bring a more pronounced temperature gradient as overall northerly flow develops in the wake of the FROPA. Afternoon highs should remain in the upper 70s to low 80s by early next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 100 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026 VFR expected to prevail at all terminals during the next 24 hours. Light and variable flow will shift ENE in the 5-10kt range after 15Z. APF may experience NW flow in the afternoon with Gulf breezes. L/V flow returns during the evening hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 315 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026 Marine conditions will continue to gradually improve across the Atlantic waters as winds subside, and a more gentle NE flow develops. A few marine showers may develop today, but weather conditions should remain generally dry over the marine zones. Significantly drier conditions will prevail through the upcoming weekend. && .BEACHES... Issued at 315 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026 As onshore flow weakens, the Risk for Rip Currents across the Palm Beach waters will decrease to moderate today. Higher than usual tides will also continue to keep elevated water levels near the coast today. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 85 74 85 73 / 20 0 10 0 West Kendall 86 73 86 72 / 10 0 10 0 Opa-Locka 86 73 86 72 / 10 0 10 0 Homestead 86 73 85 72 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 84 74 84 72 / 10 0 20 0 N Ft Lauderdale 84 73 84 72 / 10 0 10 0 Pembroke Pines 86 73 86 72 / 10 0 10 0 West Palm Beach 84 73 84 71 / 0 0 10 0 Boca Raton 84 74 84 72 / 0 0 10 0 Naples 85 71 84 71/ 10 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...17