FXUS62 KKEY 271729 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 129 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Above normal rain chances, near 30 percent, will drop after this afternoon, as drier air fills in. -Major Hurricane Melissa will continue to crawl westward just south of Jamaica through this morning, and will eventually make a northeastward turn either late today or early tomorrow. No direct impacts are expected for the Florida Keys. -A cold front will usher in relatively cooler temperatures with breezy to possibly windy weather for the middle to the end of the work week. -A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for the Upper Florida Keys. The Coastal Flood Statement may need to be extended to the remainder of the Florida Keys by later this evening. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 125 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025 After a lull in activity expected through the evening hours, nocturnal scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may redevelop after 00z. Due to the lack of confidence in timing and coverage as well as limited impacts to visibilities and ceilings, inclusion in the TAFs is left out for now, although this will reevaluated later this evening. Near-surface winds out of the east to southeast will gradually back to the north to northeast overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 1028 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025 From synopsis, high pressure situated along the Eastern Seaboard will lift northeast into Canada. At the same time, powerful Hurricane Melissa will continue to slowly trek across the Caribbean. This will leave the Florida Keys in between features and in an area of weaker pressure gradient, promoting light to gentle northeast to east breezes. The breezes will freshen as the next frontal passage occurs towards midweek. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 1028 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Nearby surface analysis places powerful Hurricane Melissa a little over one hundred miles south of Jamaica, expansive pressure centered over New England, and a stationary front draped from the northern Gulf Coast northeastward to the western Atlantic. The 12z sounding at KEY sampled a moist low- and mid-level moisture profile, along with modestly unstable lapse rates. The moisture, coupled with at times moderate breezes, have supported bouts of light to moderate showers across the Florida Keys, although actively has waned over the past several hours. The forecast calls for low- end rain chances for the rest of today, which may be a bit of stretch based on the ribbon of dry air progressing over the Keys in satellite-derived layer precipitable water products. Besides a modest uptick in short-term wind fields, no changes proposed to the inherited short term forecast. && .FORECAST... Issued at 615 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025 All eyes are well to our southwest as Major Hurricane Melissa was upgraded to a category 5 hurricane as of the 5 AM EDT update from the National Hurricane Center. We still expect no direct impacts along the island chain as the storm eventually makes a northeastward turn before accelerating toward the western North Atlantic. The weaker pressure gradient in place will continue to encourage northeast to east breezes to diminish over the course of today and tonight. We will also lose synoptic support for continued shower development, but outflow boundaries on the mesoscale may help to trigger spotty, afternoon activity. Model guidance trends continue to depict a weak lower level setup, but a deepening trough near the middle and end of the week may lead to a cold front pushing through. MOS guidance reflects dew points in the lower 60s that are typically associated with an airmass that is simply more comfortable. Precise details will take a couple of days to sort out, but weather conditions look to be wonderful once we get past the rain chances today. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 86 76 85 75 / 30 30 10 10 Marathon 86 76 85 74 / 30 30 10 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...BT Aviation/Nowcasts....BT Data Acquisition.....BT Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest