FXUS62 KKEY 271444

AFDKEY



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Key West FL

1044 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025



...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES...



-Above normal rain chances, near 30 percent, will drop after this

 afternoon, as drier air fills in.



-Major Hurricane Melissa will continue to crawl westward just

 south of Jamaica through this morning, and will eventually make a

 northeastward turn either late today or early tomorrow. No 

 direct impacts are expected for the Florida Keys.



-A cold front will usher in relatively cooler temperatures with

 breezy to possibly windy weather for the middle to the end of the

 work week.



-A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for the Upper Florida

 Keys.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 1028 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025

Nearby surface analysis places powerful Hurricane Melissa a little

over one hundred miles south of Jamaica, expansive pressure

centered over New England, and a stationary front draped from the

northern Gulf Coast northeastward to the western Atlantic. The 

12z sounding at KEY sampled a moist low- and mid-level moisture 

profile, along with modestly unstable lapse rates. The moisture, 

coupled with at times moderate breezes, have supported bouts of 

light to moderate showers across the Florida Keys, although 

actively has waned over the past several hours. The forecast calls

for low- end rain chances for the rest of today, which may be a 

bit of stretch based on the ribbon of dry air progressing over the

Keys in satellite-derived layer precipitable water products. 

Besides a modest uptick in short-term wind fields, no changes 

proposed to the inherited short term forecast.



&&



.MARINE...

Issued at 1028 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025

From synopsis, high pressure situated along the Eastern Seaboard 

will lift northeast into Canada. At the same time, powerful

Hurricane Melissa will continue to slowly trek across the 

Caribbean. This will leave the Florida Keys in between features 

and in an area of weaker pressure gradient, promoting light to

gentle northeast to east breezes. The breezes will freshen as the

next frontal passage occurs towards midweek.



&&



.AVIATION...

(15Z TAFS)

Issued at 1028 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025

VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals through 12z

Tuesday morning. With that said, remnant vicinity showers for EYW

warrants inclusion of several more hours of VCSH through 18z, with

drying conditions expected thereafter. Despite the VCSH, limited

impacts to visibilities and ceilings are expected. Near-surface 

winds generally out of the east will eventually back to the 

northeast late in the TAF period.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Key West  86  76  85  75 /  30  20  10  10 

Marathon  86  76  85  74 /  30  20  10  10 



&&



.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.

GM...None.

&&



$$



Public/Marine/Fire...BT

Aviation/Nowcasts....BT

Data Acquisition.....BT



Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key



Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:

www.facebook.com/nwskeywest

www.twitter.com/nwskeywest