FXUS62 KKEY 271015 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 615 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Above normal rain chances, near 30 percent, will drop after today as drier air fills in. -Major Hurricane Melissa will continue to crawl westward just south of Jamaica through this morning, and will eventually make a northeastward turn either late today or early tomorrow. No direct impacts are expected for the Florida Keys. -A cold front will usher in relatively cooler temperatures with breezy to possibly windy weather between the middle and the end of this week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 437 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Our weather has been a little active during this overnight shift as our KBYX radar has continued to track widely scattered showers across the forecast area. Isolated thunderstorms were also detected by satellite observation, but none have been observed over the past couple of hours. However, we can't rule a stray thunderstorm or two popping up eventually thing morning, so we will continue to advertise a slight chance of thunderstorms with our shower activity today. All eyes are well to our southwest as Major Hurricane Melissa was upgraded to a category 5 hurricane as of the 5 AM EDT update from the National Hurricane Center. We still expect no direct impacts along the island chain as the storm eventually makes a northeastward turn before accelerating toward the western North Atlantic. The weaker pressure gradient in place will continue to encourage northeast to east breezes to diminish over the course of today and tonight. We will also lose synoptic support for continued shower development, but outflow boundaries on the mesoscale may help to trigger spotty, afternoon activity. Model guidance trends continue to depict a weak lower level setup, but a deepening trough near the middle and end of the week may lead to a cold front pushing through. MOS guidance reflects dew points in the lower 60s that are typically associated with an airmass that is simply more comfortable. Precise details will take a couple of days to sort out, but weather conditions look to be wonderful once we get past the rain chances today. && .MARINE... Issued at 437 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys. From synopsis, high pressure situated along the Eastern Seaboard will lift northeast into Canada. At the same time, Hurricane Melissa will continue to slowly trek across the Caribbean. This will leave the Florida Keys in between features and in an area of weaker pressure and will allow breezes to slacken gradually through today. Breezes will likely freshen as the next frontal passage occurs towards midweek. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 437 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. Shower activity will diminish later this afternoon and at that time VCSH will be removed from the TAFs as dry air moves in. Near surface winds will be easterly at near 10 knots. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1890, the daily record cold high temperature of 70F was recorded in Key West. This is also tied for the coldest high temperature ever recorded in October for Key West. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 86 76 85 75 / 30 20 10 10 Marathon 86 76 85 74 / 30 20 10 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...DP Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Data Acquisition.....AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest