FXUS62 KKEY 270241 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1041 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Breezes will continue to relax through Monday. -Expect above normal rain chances for the next couple of days. -Hurricane Melissa will continue to drift slowly westward just south of Jamaica. No direct impacts to the Florida Keys are expected as it eventually accelerates northeastward tomorrow and into the open Atlantic late Wednesday. -A cold front will likely bring cooler temperatures with breezy to possibly windy weather later next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 920 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025 The general features driving Keys weather has changed little over the past couple of days. The local pressure gradient, while looser, remains fairly tight this evening due to a robust surface high centered around Ohio, and Hurricane Melissa slogging westward south of Jamaica. One notable difference is precipitable water has jumped a bit in the past 24 hours, from 1.56 inches last evening to currently 2.06 inches. Much of this moistening occurred from the surface through the lower troposphere. This along with a more veered flow has resulted in the scattered field of showers being stronger and advancing west northwestward instead of west southwestward. This cross island chain flow allowed more island locations to be fleetingly impacted by passing showers. Recently, one thunderstorm was able to develop on a boundary north of the Seven Mile Bridge. No significant changes to the driving forcing expected overnight. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes, along with no inhibition, ample CAPE and moisture will continue to support scattered showers and a rare thunderstorm. With all that said, winds are expected to trend slowly downwards overnight, and relax considerably on Monday. This will be due to a southern stream shortwave trough swinging through the southeast and aiding in surface troughing developing off of the southeast Atlantic Coast. Expect overnight lows to range in the mid to upper 70s with dew points holding in the mid to upper 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 920 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025 A sprawling surface high will remain centered over eastern North America. Meanwhile, Hurricane Melissa continues to creep westward just south of Jamaica. Together, these systems have resulted in the local pressure gradient remaining decently tight. This along with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will contribute to broadly moderate to fresh breezes overnight. With that said, a surface trough is expected to take shape just off the southeast Atlantic Coast and drive an initially slow diminishing trend, picking up on Monday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 920 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals. With that said, scattered fast moving showers will potentially result in brief sub VFR conditions and gusty easterly breezes. Aside from convection, breezes will be moderate easterlies. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...11 Aviation/Nowcasts....11 Data Acquisition.....AJP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest