FXUS62 KKEY 121606 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1106 AM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Drier conditions will persist today through tonight, thereafter, moisture will begin to return and elevated rain changes will prevail through the weekend. -Gentle to moderate breezes will prevail into tomorrow night as high pressure slides over the Big Bend into the western North Atlantic. -Small Craft Advisory headlines are becoming increasingly likely for Monday and Monday night after a strong front pushing through the Keys results in freshening breezes. && .SHORT TERM DISCUSSION... Issued at 1105 AM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 A cool and dry late morning continues for the Florida Keys today. Patches of high cirrus and mid level stratus are painted across the island chain and its nearshore waters on GOES-19 visibile imagery resulting in partly to mostly clear skies for islanders. Meanwhile, scattered to broken sky cover of fair weather cumulus associated with a stalled out front streaks across the Straits of Florida. KBYX radar is not exactly thrilled with these clouds as it does not detect any precipitable echoes. This is no surprise as this morning's KKEY 12z balloon sounding came back with a hunk of dry air above a sharp inversion located around 880 mb and a measured PW of 0.62 in (below the 10th percentile for today!). High pressure centered about the Big Bend of mainland Florida is promoting gentle to moderate northeast to east breezes across the Reef. Temperatures along the island chain are in the pleasant mid 70s with dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s. The current pattern looks to persist into the start of the weekend with no changes to the forecast required at this time. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 510 AM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 A "chilly" night for those in the Florida Keys, as temperatures dropped into the mid 60s overnight with dew points in the lower 60s. Dry air dominating the region on MIMIC precipitable water, and confirmed on last night's 00z sounding, has kept any shower development from happening, therefore, KBYX has remained quiet. Along the Reef, winds are currently being observed at near 10 knots. A broad area of high pressure over the southeastern US and drifting into western Atlantic will dominate the present weather through the next few periods, leading to generally stable, mostly dry weather with light to gentle breezes and seasonal temperatures for the Keys. As the weekend unfolds, a frontal boundary will move towards South Florida, increasing cloudiness and moisture and elevating the chance for showers and thunderstorms Saturday into Sunday. While no severe weather is expected at this time, SPC does have South Florida and the Keys highlighted for thunderstorms on their Day 2 and 3 Outlook (Saturday 12z-Monday 12z). Once this feature moves through, northerly to northeasterly breezes will strengthen behind it, bringing likely Small Craft Advisory conditions. We will also see slightly cooler air and diminishing shower chances as high pressure rebuilds later in the week. && .MARINE... Issued at 1105 AM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, high pressure drifting eastward into the western North Atlantic will result in gentle to moderate northeast to east breezes. The next frontal boundary is progged to push through the Florida Keys marine zones on Sunday night. Ahead of the front, elevated chances for showers and thunderstorms will be possible late Saturday through early Sunday. In the wake of the frontal passage, fresh to strong northeasterly breezes are expected Sunday night through at least Tuesday. &&.AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1105 AM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 VFR and dry conditions will prevail today at both EYW and MTH. Near surface winds will be generally out of the northeast at 6 to 11 knots. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1957, the daily record low temperature of 42F was recorded at Marathon. Temperature records for Marathon date back to 1950. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 79 71 81 70 / 0 10 30 60 Marathon 77 72 79 71 / 0 10 30 60 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...JAM Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM Data Acquisition.....JAM Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest