FXUS62 KKEY 100228

AFDKEY



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Key West FL

1028 PM EDT Fri May 9 2025



...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 1030 PM EDT Fri May 9 2025

Composite satellite analysis places the base of an upper-level

trough in the Gulf basin, with an associated cut-off low forming

over the state of Louisiana. Associated upper-level divergence 

to the east of the trough has promoted episodic deep convection 

over the northern two- thirds of the FLorida Peninsula this 

evening, including quite a bit of cloud to surface lightning 

activity. Closer to home, the 00z evening sounding at KEY sampled 

an eroding capping inversion above the boundary layer, along with 

a relatively dry tropospheric profile. KBYX radar is currently

void of any meteorological echo returns at this late Friday 

evening hour.



Although a passing shower cannot be ruled out in modestly

freshened southeasterly flow overnight, most island communities

will likely remain dry. Temperatures should only drop another

degree or two, bottoming out in the upper 70s. These dry

conditions will likely not continue beyond Saturday, as the

aforementioned upper-level trough digs and slights a bit eastward,

bringing deep, tropical moisture towards the Keys. 



&&



.MARINE...

Issued at 1030 PM EDT Fri May 9 2025

No watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for the Florida

Keys. However, Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines may 

need to be posted for early Saturday until winds decrease, 

especially in the Straits of Florida. From synopsis, an Atlantic 

ridge extending across south-central Florida will shift eastward 

this weekend, as troughing develops over the Southeast and 

northern Gulf. Gentle to moderate southeasterly breezes will lull 

during the afternoon and peak late in the evening through the 

early morning hours for the next couple days. A surface low will 

develop over the north central Gulf by this weekend, then lift 

slowly northward over the Southeast early next week. An associated

front will approach the Florida Keys coastal waters during the 

early to middle part of next week, preceded by freshening breezes 

and increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms through 

Tuesday.



&&



.AVIATION...

(00Z TAFS)

Issued at 1030 PM EDT Fri May 9 2025

VFR conditions will generally prevail at both island terminals

through the TAF period, with SCT025 cloud decks. A light, 

nocturnal shower in the southeasterlies cannot be ruled out before

12z. Additional convection is expected for form in the vicinity 

of Cuba Saturday afternoon, which may slide towards the Lower and 

Middle Keys close to the end of the TAF period. Confidence in this

evolution is far too include any mention in the TAFs at this 

time.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Key West  79  87  78  87 /  10  20  30  30 

Marathon  79  86  79  86 /  10  20  30  30 



&&



.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.

GM...None.

&&



$$



Public/Marine/Fire...BT

Aviation/Nowcasts....BT

Data Acquisition.....BT



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