FXUS62 KKEY 091855 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 255 PM EDT Fri May 9 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 256 PM EDT Fri May 9 2025 The beautiful day continues in the Florida Keys! Over the course of today, clouds have come and gone across the island chain with a majority of the cloud coverage currently streaming over the Lower Keys. The island chain remains dry with no rainfall measured and temperatures are steady in the mid 80s. Along the Reef, the winds have slightly decreased since this morning and are now on the lower end of 10 to 15 knots. Tonight will be the last night of our more quiet pattern that we've been experiencing this week in the Florida Keys. Tomorrow and through the weekend, a broad trough will pivot into the central CONUS. Simultaneously, a surface low developing in the northern Gulf along a frontal boundary will meander east. This will allow for deep tropical moisture to be ushered into our area. Rain chances will begin to increase Saturday, but the highest shower and thunder chances are for late Sunday through Tuesday. The main hazards expected with this convection will be hazardous marine conditions, lightning strikes, and gusty winds. Outside of convection, winds will continue to lull during the daytime and peak early evening and the overnight hours, staying just below SCA criteria. By mid- week, the atmosphere will begin to stabilize as the trough exits and a high pressure system build a over Florida suppressing any further convection. Once said high pressure becomes the dominant feature again, rain chances will return to more on track with climatology for this time of year (10%) and mostly sunny skies will reappear just before the weekend. Stay tuned! && .MARINE... Issued at 256 PM EDT Fri May 9 2025 No watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for the Florida Keys. From synopsis, an Atlantic ridge extending over the Florida Peninsula will shift eastward this weekend, as troughing develops over the Southeast and northern Gulf. Gentle to moderate southeasterly breezes will lull during the afternoon and peak late in the evening through the early morning hours for the next couple days. A surface low will develop over the north central Gulf by this weekend, then lift slowly northward over the Southeast early next week. An associated front will approach the Florida Keys coastal waters during the early to middle part of next week, preceded by freshening breezes and increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 256 PM EDT Fri May 9 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH for the rest of today and into tonight. Rain chances will increase to a slight chance tonight. As chances will still be low, no mention in either TAF is required for now. Near surface winds will be out of the southeast at 8 to 12 knots. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AP Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM Data Acquisition.....JAM Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest