FXUS62 KKEY 061742

AFDKEY



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Key West FL

142 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026



...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Rain and thunder chances will remain near zero for the Keys

  through the weekend.

  

- Dew points will increase to the mid 70s by the end of the week.

  Combined with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s, this 

  will support potential elevated heat risk concerns for the 

  weekend.



- Limited total rainfall amounts are expected through early next 

  week for most island communities. This will continue to 

  exacerbate existing drought conditions across the Keys. 



&&



.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)

Issued at 132 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026

VFR conditions will prevail with virtually no shower or

thunderstorm activity through the TAF period. Fair weather cumulus

clouds will be based somewhere near FL025 and 030, and will range

in coverage from FEW to occasionally SCT.





&&



.PREV DISCUSSION...

Issued at 1009 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

A rather routine forecast through at least Sunday. A ridge will 

slowly slide eastward over the next several days while also 

amplifying. Light southeasterlies will supply modest warm air and 

dew point advection to the Keys. Forecast soundings suggest cloud 

cover will be quite limited through at least Sunday, with near-nil

rain and thunder chances continuing. Temperatures will become 

above normal as the ridge sits on top of the Keys by the weekend, 

with highs in the mid to upper 80s (near 90F at a few island 

communities), and temperatures struggling to get below 80F for the

overnight periods in the stagnant light flow.



Early next week, most ensemble mean global guidance suggests a

weak frontal boundary will approach the Keys. As is often the case

this time of year, the boundary will lose baroclinicity as it

approaches South Florida, likely stalling before eventually

washing out. However, this may support at least a window of slight

to low-end chance rain and thunder potential. Any rainfall will be

welcome, given low- to moderate ongoing drought conditions for the

Keys.



&&



.MARINE...

Issued at 1009 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

There are no watches, warnings, or advisories issued for the

Florida Keys local waters. Higher pressure building in, and

dominating the pattern, will encourage light to gentle

southeasterly breezes through the middle of the week. Breezes may

become variable at times. Moisture will be limited through the

atmosphere, so rain and thunder chances are very low, near zero.

The next opportunity for some unsettled weather may not be until

early next week.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Key West  79  89  80  90 /   0   0   0   0 

Marathon  79  86  80  86 /   0   0   0   0 



&&



.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.

GM...None.

&&



$$



Public/Marine/Fire...DP

Aviation/Nowcasts....DP

Data Acquisition.....DP



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