FXUS62 KKEY 050913

AFDKEY



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Key West FL

413 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026



...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Minor coastal flooding will continue through the next several

  days, especially in the Upper Keys. Minor to moderate coastal

  flooding may return across the Keys heading into the weekend 

  with the approaching new moon. 



- Rain chances will be near to below normal for the remainder of

  this week.



- Dew points is expected to slip to near 70 degrees by this

  weekend due breezes turning to light to gentle northerlies.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 400 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026



A surface ridge stretches southwestward off the southeast Atlantic

coast, across the Florida Peninsula, and into the Gulf. This ridge

is being pinched by a mid latitude low over northeastern North

America and a non tropical low developing well northeast of the

Bahamas. As a result of this setup, breezes in the Keys are light

to gentle out of the northeast this morning. Meanwhile, weak 

lower to mid level ridging is splayed across Florida and under the

descending branch of an upper southern stream trough. Last 

evenings sounding indicated precipitable water was around 2 inches

with ample CAPE and zero inhibition. However, in recent hours, 

convective activity across the area has been spotty and generally 

weak with no thunderstorms. It's possible that some expected lower

level drying has begun to move in.



The weak surface through lower level ridge is expected to remain

across the Florida Peninsula today. The Keys are expected to

remain just outside of the cyclonic envelope around the western 

periphery of the non tropical low far to our east northeast.

Expect surface winds to be light to gentle out of the northeast to

east today. Forecast soundings suggest inhibition will remain 

essentially non- existent, but lower level instability will 

diminish, along with continuing lower level drying. The steering 

flow is expected to be east northeast, much like yesterday. This 

will, once again keep the door open for island cloud lines and 

South Florida seabreeze activity pushing towards the Keys. For 

now, will maintain slight chance for showers and thunderstorms for

today. Conditions will be warm and humid compared to seasonal 

norms. Highs will be in the mid 80s with dew points remaining in 

the mid 70s.



&&



.MARINE...

Issued at 400 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026



A surface ridge stretching southwestward across the Florida

Peninsula is being squeezed by a mid latitude trough over

northeastern North America and a deepening non tropical low

centered far to the northeast of the Bahamas. As a result, surface

winds across Keys waters will generally be light to gentle out of

the northeast to east today.



&&



.AVIATION...

(06Z TAFS)

Issued at 400 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026



VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals today. A weak

island cloud line will be possible today and may produce periods

of sub VFR conditions, mostly in the form of lower ceilings.

Surface winds will be light out of the northeast to east.



&&



.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.

GM...None.



&&



$$



Public/Marine/Fire...11

Aviation/Nowcasts....11

Data Acquisition.....11



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