FXUS62 KKEY 031745 AAA

AFDKEY



Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED

National Weather Service Key West FL

145 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025



...New AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION...



.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)

Issued at 142 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Thunderstorms continue to pulse in the lee of Big Pine Key, just

on the edge of the 10 mile ring for MTH. Winds are expected to

shift to the WNW shortly, so have included a brief window of TSRA

for MTH. EYW is more difficult. Three relic outflows are spilling

southward towards the Lower Keys, while nearly stationary

boundaries sit just to the south of EYW. We introduced a window of

VCSH for EYW based on this uncertainty, but will amend impacts if

the collisions are successful in kicking off convection. 



&&



.PREV DISCUSSION...

Issued at 957 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Water vapor and streamline analyses highlight a broad longwave

trough extending south into Florida. Subtropical ridging persists

over Mexico and the western Gulf of America, and also across the 

Central Atlantic. CIRA's LPW products place a sharp moisture

gradient across the Florida Keys, especially the 700-500 mb layer.

The best moisture remains to the north of the island chain. IR/VIS

satellite imagery in conjunction with 925-700 mb model depictions

reveal moderate cyclonic curvature across the southeastern Gulf,

low-level ridging building west across the Great Bahama Bank, and

a broad col-region over the western half of the Straits and 

western Cuba. As such, there appears to be a decent shot at 

cyclonic convergence across the Gulf waters and potentially the 

island chain over the next several hours. There may be a dramatic 

collapse in convection as it nears the island chain from the Gulf 

due to the dry air lurking near and to the south of the Keys. High

temperatures today should top out in the upper 80s to near 90, 

with anvil debris tempering temperatures a couple of degrees. 

Initially south to southwesterly winds will end up a little 

squirrely this afternoon as the col- region lifts northward. The 

only change with this morning's package was to split eastern 

Hawk/Straits due to the 15 knot winds at Carysfort, accelerated by

the surface trough over the Mainland. We will reassess the idea 

for isolated coverage tIssued at 142 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

his afternoon based on our counter-analysis. Current radar trends

suggest the overnight crew may have been on the right course.



&&



.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.

GM...None.

&&



$$



Public/Marine/Fire...CLR

Aviation/Nowcasts....CLR

Data Acquisition.....CLR



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