FXUS62 KKEY 031433 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1033 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 957 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Water vapor and streamline analyses highlight a broad longwave trough extending south into Florida. Subtropical ridging persists over Mexico and the western Gulf of America, and also across the Central Atlantic. CIRA's LPW products place a sharp moisture gradient across the Florida Keys, especially the 700-500 mb layer. The best moisture remains to the north of the island chain. IR/VIS satellite imagery in conjunction with 925-700 mb model depictions reveal moderate cyclonic curvature across the southeastern Gulf, low-level ridging building west across the Great Bahama Bank, and a broad col-region over the western half of the Straits and western Cuba. As such, there appears to be a decent shot at cyclonic convergence across the Gulf waters and potentially the island chain over the next several hours. There may be a dramatic collapse in convection as it nears the island chain from the Gulf due to the dry air lurking near and to the south of the Keys. High temperatures today should top out in the upper 80s to near 90, with anvil debris tempering temperatures a couple of degrees. Initially south to southwesterly winds will end up a little squirrely this afternoon as the col- region lifts northward. The only change with this morning's package was to split eastern Hawk/Straits due to the 15 knot winds at Carysfort, accelerated by the surface trough over the Mainland. We will reassess the idea for isolated coverage this afternoon based on our counter- analysis. Current radar trends suggest the overnight crew may have been on the right course. && .MARINE... Issued at 957 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Broad low-level ridging will continue to rebuild over the North Atlantic. This will initially support light to gentle southeast to south breezes across Florida Keys coastal waters and gradually clock around to the southwest and west as trough of low pressure approaches the region from the north. Rain chances will increase by Friday and remain elevated through Saturday evening as a result. As the trough exits the region and lifts northeast starting Sunday, a weak ridge axis will lie across the Florida Keys, resulting in generally light to gentle easterly breezes. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 957 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Current radar trends suggest increasing shower and thunderstorm coverage across the southeastern Gulf where broadly cyclonic flow will capitalize on rich moisture. The 12Z KKEY RAOB sampled low- level southwesterlies, a recipe for building CAPE (potential energy) along the island chain. Therefore, we will hold onto the TEMPO for showers this afternoon as the Gulf coalesces and spreads east-southeaast towards the terminals. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 90 81 90 81 / 40 30 50 50 Marathon 88 80 88 80 / 30 20 50 50 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...CLR Aviation/Nowcasts....CLR Data Acquisition.....CLR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest