FXUS62 KKEY 031009 

AFDKEY



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Key West FL

509 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026



...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Weather will trend drier and modestly warmer for the next few

  days. 



- Gentle to moderate breezes will continue through Wednesday 

  night before breezes freshen ahead of the next cold front.



- The next cold front is scheduled to push through the Florida

  Keys on Thursday afternoon or evening.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 508 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

A peaceful night into a pleasant morning is occurring for the

Florida Keys. KBYX radar has been echo-free for hours and

Nighttime Microphysics reveals a cloud-free island chain, though

there is a nice swath of clouds drifting across the eastern 

Straits of Florida. Temperatures along the island chain are 

currently near 50 and dewpoints near 30 making it feel pretty 

chilly outside and there are still a couple more hours to allow 

to temperatures to radiate a few degrees lower. Across the Reef, 

breezes are moderate as an overnight surge is occurring but as the

morning moves along, breezes will slightly slacken to gentle to 

moderate for the remainder of the day.



This mild weather is thanks to a broad high pressure dominating 

the southeastern US, which will continue to suppress any moisture

attempting to enter the area. Under this pattern the Keys will 

experience gentle to moderate winds with dry conditions through 

midweek as the high remains in control. Going into Thursday, 

winds will quickly freshen and back as another cold front races 

through our area. Ahead of the front, rain chances will slightly 

increase with a possibility of a pre-frontal line of showers. 

Confidence is increasing that Small Craft Advisory headlines may 

be required from late Thursday and Thursday night. This front will

then bring another round of cooler temperatures for the Keys with

lows projected in the mid to lower 50s for a majority of the 

island chain, with the Upper Keys potentially seeing upper 40s. 

Stay tuned.



&&



.MARINE...

Issued at 508 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect in the

Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, moderate, generally north to 

northeast breezes are expected through Wednesday. Near the end of 

the week, another cold front will push through the Keys marine 

zones. This will bring another push of freshened breezes and 

building seas for Friday into the weekend.



&&



.AVIATION...

(06Z TAFS)

Issued at 508 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

VFR and dry conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH today. A 

brief nocturnal surge will promote more northerly winds and 

occasional gusts near 15 knots at either terminal early. Near 

surface winds will then be generally out of the northeast at 6 to 11 

knots for the rest of the day.



&&



.CLIMATE...

On this day in 1917, the daily record low temperature of 44F was 

recorded in Key West. This is also tied for the coldest temperature 

ever recorded in February. Temperature data for Key West dates back 

to 1872.



&&



.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.

GM...None.

&&



$$



Public/Marine/Fire...AP

Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM

Data Acquisition.....JAM



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