FXUS62 KKEY 030147 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 947 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 951 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Weather conditions across the Florida Keys have been mostly quiet during the past evening. That said, active weather was able to develop within our CWA. Occasional showers pulsed into thunderstorms over the Outer Gulf waters. Weak showers were detected on the KBYX radar north of the Lower Keys. However, these lower altitude features are mostly obscured on GOES East satellite imagery due to high altitude cirrus clouds directed towards the Keys by a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) cell east of the Florida Peninsula. The 00Z KKEY sounding sampled an environment that should be primed for shower formation given high CAPE, minimal inhibition, and a PWAT value very close to the 90th percentile for the day. The first problem for thunderstorms would be slightly backing winds near the surface and a shallow dry layer just above the boundary layer. If showers can get above the drier layers in the mid- atmosphere, then the wind shear from the TUTT outflow would cut off further intensification. Overall, expecting a quiet but humid night across the Keys with sustained cloud cover. No changes to the overnight forecast are required for this forecast package. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms will be maintained. && .MARINE... Issued at 951 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 No watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, broad low-level ridging will continue to rebuild over the North Atlantic and support light to gentle southeast to south breezes across Florida Keys coastal waters. Rain chances will increase again late this week as a trough of low pressure moves into the Southeast United States and moves little through the weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 951 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Prevailing VFR conditions are expected for EYW and MTH through the 00Z TAF period. Occasional MVFR CIGs are expected, but not at high enough frequency to require a TEMPO group. Near surface winds will be light and frequently variable. Prevailing winds will be southerly at both terminals. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AJP Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP Data Acquisition.....11 Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest